With two weeks left until Election Day and a virtual freeze on national and state-level polls, there are more and more ‘partner voters’ who will decide this election.
A new poll from my company, Schoen Cooperman Research, sought to shed new light on this core group of voters: those who are undecided or support one of the two candidates but may change their minds before Election Day.
To that end, it would be a mistake to count them as solid Harris voters, even though our poll shows that Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump among these voters (34% to 29%).
This is a voting bloc that is geared toward voting against the current administration if the Trump campaign’s messaging can address concerns that the country is headed down the wrong path, and if Trump’s policies can address them.
In fact, swing voters, who are mainly politically independent (40%) and young (42% under 40), are very pessimistic about the state of the country, with roughly six in ten saying the country is on the wrong track (62%); The situation in the United States has worsened over the past four years (59%).
Along the same lines, less than half (48%) of swing voters who support Harris said they voted for her, while more than a third (36%) said their vote actually went against Trump.
This is a considerably weaker approval rating than among voters who typically voted for Harris, with three-quarters (74%) saying they voted for Harris.
The weak support for Harris is likely because Trump has a significant advantage on key issues such as immigration, the economy and foreign policy, especially when compared to the broader electorate.
Among voters who can change their minds, Trump leads Harris in confidence on addressing illegal immigration (49% to 27%), managing the economy (48% to 31%), and handling the war in Ukraine (41% to 27%) . Middle East (36% to 27%).
To be sure, Trump’s lead with these voters is much larger than his lead with the electorate as a whole. If these sentiments are reflected in the swing states, there is no doubt that Donald Trump will win four to six of these important states.
On immigration, Trump has a 22-point lead among all voters, more than double his 10-point lead. And his 17-point lead on the economy is four times higher than his 4-point lead with the broader electorate on this issue.
With inflation (38%), the economy (28%) and immigration (25%) cited as the most important issues by voters, Trump’s key numbers give him a significant lead when Americans vote.
Harris’s difficulties with this group are partly or entirely due to her messaging strategy. Voters have no idea where she stands on the issues they care about.
Nearly four in ten voters nationwide (39%) say Harris is clearer than Trump on her plan to address immigration, while a similar 46% say this “swing voter” feels significantly differently about her economic policies. .
Just a quarter (25%) of this voting group say Harris is clearer than Trump on how she will approach immigration, and 37% say the same about Harris’ economic plan.
Overall, a majority of these swing voters (41%) say they are not sure what action Harris will take if elected because she has not made it clear where she stands on key issues. The fact that we are so close to an election is surprising.
A similar majority (39%) of swing voters said they were more concerned that Harris had leaned too far to the left politically, while 35% said they were more concerned that Trump had leaned too far to the right.
Obviously, both Trump and Harris will need to deliver a better business message if they want to win this important voting bloc, but given their distaste for the current administration, Trump’s job is much easier.
President Trump should return to an economic-focused campaign focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and smaller government.
For Harris to win over voters who may change their minds before Election Day, it starts with leveraging her lead over “hard voters” who perceive her as a change candidate. 47% say her versus 27% Trump. Communicates her immigration and economic agenda clearly.
On the latter, Harris needs to clarify what he means by “opportunity economics.” She mentioned housing subsidies, lower prescription and health care costs, and investments in American workers, but data shows that a significant number of Americans have little idea what she will actually do or how she will do it.
Likewise, Harris needs to tell voters how her presidency differs from President Biden’s, given that only 38% of swing voters support the job Biden has done.
Harris has gone to great lengths to portray herself as a political moderate, including promoting gun ownership. But more needs to be done to sway voters who may be undecided or change their minds.
One of us has previously written about the need for Harris to create a comprehensive communications strategy that addresses voters’ lack of knowledge about her positions. But with two weeks left, things are now getting very critical.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at Schoen Cooperman Research, a New York-based public opinion research firm. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”
