How can we move towards a more sustainable future? LSE Chairman and Vice-Chancellor Larry Kramer We argue that while greater ambition is still needed, the most effective way is to successfully deploy the technologies we have and deliver on the promises we have already made.
If we’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s that there are limits to how much nature can give us in our efforts to create material wealth for ourselves. Many ecosystems are reaching or approaching these limits, including not only greenhouse gas emissions, but also biodiversity, freshwater, and aerosol loads (i.e. particulate air pollution).
grow our ambitions
I started my climate work when I joined the Hewlett Foundation in 2012. Climate models inevitably offer a variety of possible outcomes, but the most likely models at the time predicted that, on business as usual, global average temperatures would rise by about 4 to 5 degrees Celsius. By the end of this century it will be above pre-industrial levels, which may not wipe out the human race, but will almost certainly be more than our political and economic systems can handle. think Mad Max.
Twelve years later, the same projections, between what has already been done and what is already underway, put us reasonably on a trajectory to warm temperatures by 2.7 to 3.6 degrees Celsius, keeping temperatures on track if current emissions reduction commitments are met. It rises to a minimum of 1.8 degrees
The numbers are still dire. Even 1.8 degrees Celsius (probably the highest we can expect at this point) would be very bad. But given that the entire world economy was running on fossil fuels in 2012, this should nonetheless be seen as a remarkable development – a combination of new technologies and successful efforts to raise the ambitions of public and private actors.
So what’s next? We have many of the skills we need, and where we lack these skills, we are developing them. There is good reason to believe that, with the right kind of support and encouragement, this can happen in time. Greater ambition is still needed, but the most effective way to achieve this is to successfully deploy the technologies we have and successfully deliver on the promises we have already made. That said, for now, the fight for sustainability must focus on implementation.
Three major efforts
Make no mistake. Implementing existing promises and technologies is a huge challenge. I will present our immediate challenges around three key efforts that will be needed to execute successfully over the next 10 to 20 years. Everyone needs it equally.
The first is efforts to physically change energy systems, that is, to apply new energy technologies. This includes phasing out fossil fuels (at a pace and in a manner that does not devastate the hundreds of millions of people who still depend on them). construction of solar farms, wind farms and other renewable energy sources; Build infrastructure for the production and use of low-carbon steel, cement, and industrial chemicals, as well as the electrification of transportation and the built environment. Develop sources and supply chains for the essential minerals needed (in a way that does not further degrade ecosystems and biodiversity).
The second is the effort required to fund the first effort. Perhaps conservative estimates suggest that we will need to invest between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion annually over the next 25 years to achieve the necessary changes in a timely manner. This is a figure we have not yet reached, and one that will require us to unleash both public and private resources. For new policies and approaches to gain traction and last, they require creative thinking from people working in finance, economics, political science, and law, as well as work in social and behavioral fields.
Third is the effort needed to make this a just transition. That is, implementing the first two efforts in a way that is fair to those who have borne disproportionate costs, or who will bear them unfairly if we are not careful. This includes both finding ways to compensate people around the world who will already suffer losses and damage from warming, and ensuring that transition costs are not disproportionately imposed on those who have always borne them in the past.
It also involves finding solutions for the people and communities who have built their lives around fossil fuel industrial complexes, from workers in coal mines, oil fields and refineries to those who build pipelines, drive trucks and work at gas stations. Entire regions whose financial health and local culture depend on fossil fuel production.
Of course there is more. I have not addressed concerns about ecosystem conservation and biodiversity conservation, not to mention the overwhelming need to adapt to climate change that is occurring and will occur even if mitigation goals are met. But here at the London School of Economics, research is already underway on all of these issues, and our new Global School of Sustainability is designed to provide a hub to support this so we can scale up what we can do.
This is an excerpt from LSE Chairman and LSE Vice-Chancellor Larry Kramer’s inaugural lecture, “All we need is to think hard: Five challenges for the social sciences”, delivered at the London School of Economics on 14 October 2024. That’s it.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Main image source: stalker /Shutterstock.com
