The Austrian Freedom Party won Austria’s legislative elections on September 29. Not yet Reinhard Heinisch He explains that it will be difficult for the party to form a viable government.
The Austrian parliamentary elections were a watershed moment. For the first time in Austria’s democratic history, the populist far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) took first place in a general election, beating Austria’s two long-ruling parties, the Christian conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Austrian Freedom Party (ÖVP). Social Democratic Party (SPÖ).
With 28.8% of the vote, the FPÖ achieved its best result in the parliamentary elections, winning 64 seats out of 183 seats. The ÖVP gained momentum in opinion polls in the weeks leading up to the election, but failed to catch 26.3%. Internally divided, under the pressure of ever-present socio-economic and socio-cultural divisions between supporters and executives, the SPÖ failed to get past the 21% mark that most opinion polls had predicted.
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This was a strong rebuke to both traditional political parties. Just five years ago, the ÖVP, led by young political star Sebastian Kurz, surged to an impressive 38.4% after a sharp shift to the right and seemed poised to secure a solid majority for years to come. After Kurz was ousted following his indictment and subsequent conviction for perjury, his successor as chancellor, former Interior Minister Karl Nehammer, struggled to overcome his image as dull compared to the bold Kurz.
His government also seemed overwhelmed by the various crises affecting the country, including COVID-19, a huge surge in energy prices due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting high inflation. All three predicaments have hit Austria disproportionately compared to other Western countries, resulting in an economy mired in recession and unsustainable deficits that exceed the Maastricht criteria. Nehammer rose to prominence during the campaign but still failed to achieve the typical political support a sitting prime minister typically receives.
The SPÖ fared even worse in 2019, losing votes despite historically poor results. As a result of these initial setbacks, the SPÖ changed its leadership, repositioning the party even further to the left. The new leader, Andreas Babler, gained leadership through a grassroots campaign, but clearly lacked the support of other senior figures and key forces within the party.
Some leading lawmakers were so alarmed by Babler’s left-wing rhetoric that, even just before the election, they expressed concerns that he could damage the party in future coalition talks. The SPÖ’s remaining constituencies turned out to be pensioners and urban progressives who, wanting to prevent a right-wing government coalition, switched from the Greens to the SPÖ, making the latter large enough to form a coalition with Nehammer’s conservatives. Meanwhile, most blue-collar voters have long shifted to the Libertarian Party.
Kickle’s Victory
The clear winner of this election was Herbert Kickl, leader of the Freedom Party. His mastery of social media campaigns surpassed that of all other political parties in Austria, with the party’s updates regularly reaching more than a million followers in a country with a population of nine million. This allowed the FPÖ to achieve a result that had been predicted in opinion polls for over a year. Arguably Austria’s best communicator among the best politicians, Kickl has emerged from the shadow of the eternal strategist behind the scenes. He established himself as the undisputed leader of the party following its collapse in 2019 following the infamous Ibiza video.
When the FPÖ was pushed into opposition, Kickl unified and rebuilt the party by emphasizing a radical populist and nativist narrative about a corrupt political system that supposedly distorted traditional democracy, betrayed the people, and abandoned common sense. Kickl also did not shy away from appealing to conspiracy sentiments propagated by extremist groups, such as the Great Replacement Theory, which purports to be a government conspiracy to replace the population with immigrants.
Another topic of Kickl’s FPÖ was the so-called “Corona Dictatorship”, a term referring to the government’s response to COVID-19, or the supposed climate conspiracy of left-wing eco-fascists and EU elites. Kickl also rejected sanctions against Russia, blamed the EU and Ukraine for the war and portrayed Austrians as victims of high energy prices and soaring inflation. The FPÖ leader also strongly admires Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian model, and parts of his program can be read as a blueprint for establishing an illiberal type of democracy.
The election ultimately turned into a theme favoring the radical right. The most important issues by far were immigration, asylum and crime, with 24% of the vote, followed by concerns about the pension system and the welfare state. Exit poll data shows that 65% of FPÖ voters supported the radical right because of the party’s stance on immigration, while 43% of SPÖ voters were most concerned about the welfare state and 73% of Green voters were most concerned about the welfare state. I did it. climate. Conservatives scored better on economics (35%) and less on immigration (15%).
formation of government
It is ironic that the Liberal Party’s victory reduces the possibility of the Liberal Party participating in government. Had the Liberals underperformed, Kickl could have easily stepped down and the Liberals would have been content with a junior role in conservative-led governments like they did in 2000 and 2017. Nehammer ruled out forming a government with Kickl. He has repeatedly emphasized that FPÖ leaders, either as prime minister or in government, are dangerous for democracy and cannot be trusted.
A coalition with the SPÖ, while numerically possible, is unstable as it could only secure a majority of one or two seats. The third partner, the NEOS party, will increase its parliamentary majority and include the election winner. The small Liberal Party achieved its best result to date, taking 9.2% of the vote. However, the prospect of a coalition between three parties with such different agendas would be politically difficult if this option were to materialize.
Some are already comparing it to Germany’s unpopular coalition government. However, in Austria’s case the main opposition party and therefore the main beneficiary of an unpopular government will be the far right rather than the Conservatives. The situation was further complicated by the role of Austrian Federal President and Green Party member Alexander Van der Bellen. He has the constitutional power to veto any government, believes Kickl is unfit for high office and stressed he will not tolerate a government that does not explicitly support the EU.
In short, Austria faces politically uncertain times and difficult negotiations. Clearly, from the perspective of the European Union, which wants to be seen as a united global actor and a beacon of liberal democracy and the rule of law, the Liberals’ participation in government would not be welcome.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
