Analysts say Sunday’s election is unlikely to be free and fair, but they are unlikely to speak out as the European Union’s main concern is stopping the boats.
advertisementWith his main opponents jailed or voted out, Tunisian President Kais Saied faced few obstacles to his re-election on Sunday, five years after he began his first term riding an anti-establishment backlash.
The North African country’s Oct. 6 presidential election is the third since protests ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the first dictator toppled in the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings that toppled the leaders of Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
International observers praised the previous two conventions for meeting democratic norms. But numerous arrests and actions by election authorities appointed by Saied have raised questions about whether this year’s elections will be free and fair. And the opposition party called for a boycott.
Not long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the only success story of the Arab Spring. As coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars rocked the region, the North African country enacted a new democratic constitution, and leading civil society groups won the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering a political compromise.
But the new leaders failed to revitalize the struggling economy and were plagued by political infighting and violence.
EU policy on Tunisia
Meanwhile, ahead of Sunday’s election, the EU has been largely silent on the possibility of a further regression in democracy. Since migration is a major political issue that has dominated many recent elections in Europe, preventing boat arrivals is a key concern for Brussels.
The agreement between the EU and Tunisia, signed in 2023, is designed to slow the number of migrants attempting the dangerous crossing to the Mediterranean. In return, Tunisia receives hundreds of millions of euros in financial assistance.
And the number of migrants reaching the Italian coastline, the closest EU territory to Tunisia, has fallen sharply. While 135,000 migrants arrived in Italy in 2023, only 51,000 arrived in Italy on October 4, 2024. Considering that summer is now over, when most migrants attempt to cross the river, their numbers are much lower than last year.
Tragically, bodies continue to wash ashore on Tunisia’s coastline as some boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa only sail a few nautical miles before sinking.
Said’s government took a harsh approach to immigrants arriving from sub-Saharan Africa. Many of them were trapped in Tunisia while trying to reach Europe.
Said energized his supporters in early 2023 by accusing immigrants of violence and crime and portraying them as part of a plot to change the country’s demographic makeup. Anti-immigrant rhetoric has led to extreme violence against migrants and a crackdown by authorities. Last year, security forces targeted migrant communities from the coast to the capital with a series of arrests, deportations to the desert and demolition of tent camps in Tunis and coastal towns.
InfoMigrants, a migrant rights NGO, posted distressing videos to X on September 30 showing African migrants suffering after being abandoned in the desert.
Analysts such as Anthony Dworkin of the European Council on Foreign Relations say the EU also wants to keep President Syed on its side.
Dworkin wrote in one comment that the EU wants to prevent “further strategic and commercial advances by Russia and China.”
Who is President Kais Said?
Said won his first term in office in 2019 as a political outsider. He entered the runoff on a promise to lead a ‘new Tunisia’ and give more power to young people and local governments.
advertisementThis year’s election will be an opportunity to gauge public opinion about the direction Tunisia’s declining democracy is heading since Said took power.
Said’s supporters appear to remain loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he is not affiliated with any political party, and it is unclear how deep his support among Tunisians is.
This is the first presidential election since Said upended the country’s politics in July 2021, declaring a state of emergency, dismissing the prime minister, suspending parliament and amending Tunisia’s constitution to consolidate his power.
The action outraged pro-democracy groups and the main opposition party, which called it a coup. But despite the anger of career politicians, voters approved Said’s new constitution in a poorly received referendum the following year.
advertisementAuthorities then began arresting Said’s critics, including journalists, lawyers, politicians and civil society figures, on charges of endangering national security and violating controversial anti-fake news laws that observers say stifle dissent. I did it.
Amid widespread economic difficulties and political indifference, the number of voters participating in the 2022 and 2023 general and local elections has decreased.
oppression of the opposition party
Many people wanted to challenge Sayyed, but few were able to do so.
Seventeen potential candidates submitted documents to run, and Tunisian election authorities approved only three: Saied, Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel.
advertisementMaghzaoui is a veteran politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic programs and his recent political arrests. Despite this, he is loathed by opposition parties for his support of Sayed’s constitution and previous moves to consolidate power.
Zammel is a businessman who does not boycott the race and is supported by politicians. During the campaign, he received prison sentences in four voter fraud cases involving signatures his team collected to qualify for the ballot.
Others hoped to run but were blocked. The election authority, known as ISIE, last month rejected a court ruling to reinstate three additional challengers.
Even Tunisia’s most prominent opposition figures are not participating, with many people arrested, detained or convicted on charges related to their political activities.
advertisementThis includes the 83-year-old leader of Ennahda, Tunisia’s best-organized political party that came to power after the Arab Spring. Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder of the Islamist party and former speaker of Tunisia’s lower house of parliament, has been jailed since last year after criticizing Said.
The crackdown also includes one of Ghannouchi’s loudest detractors, Abir Moussi, a right-wing lawmaker known for criticizing Islamists and evoking nostalgia for a pre-Arab Spring Tunisia. The 49-year-old leader of the Free Destourian Party was also jailed last year after criticizing Said.
Other lesser-known politicians who have announced plans to run have been jailed or sentenced on similar charges.
Opposition groups called for a boycott of the primary. The National Salvation Front, a coalition of secular and Islamist parties including Ennahda, has denounced the election process as fake and questioned its legitimacy.
advertisementTunisia’s stagnant economy
The country’s economy continues to face great challenges. Despite Said’s promises to chart a new path for Tunisia, unemployment has steadily risen, reaching 16%, the highest in the region, with young Tunisians hit particularly hard.
Growth has slowed since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Tunisia remains dependent on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today Tunisia owes them more than 8.1 billion euros. Aside from agricultural reforms, Said’s overall economic strategy is unclear.
Negotiations over a 1.7 billion euro bailout package proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2022 have been stalled for a long time. Said did not accept conditions that included restructuring of indebted state enterprises and cuts to public wages. Some of the IMF’s provisions, including increased subsidies for electricity, flour and fuel, are likely to be unpopular among Tunisians who rely on low costs.
Economic analysts say continued political risks and lack of certainty are discouraging foreign and domestic investors from investing in Tunisia.
advertisementExtreme economic hardship has affected migration, one of Tunisia’s main political problems, in two ways. From 2019 to 2023, increasing numbers of Tunisians attempted to migrate to Europe without permission.
