The ongoing war in Gaza has historically shifted Arab Americans’ support for Democratic candidates. 46% of voters surveyed by the Arab American Institute said they would support former President Trump, and 42% said they would support Vice President Harris.
Democrats generally have a 2-to-1 advantage among Arab Americans in elections. Nonetheless, a poll Wednesday found Harris trailing by 18 percentage points in Arab-American support for President Biden in the 2020 election. Six in 10 Arab Americans voted for Biden in 2020. Wednesday’s results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5 points.
“In 30 years of polling Arab American voters, we have never seen anything like the impact of the Gaza war on voter behavior,” the poll document says. “With just over a month until the election, we will see whether those who share concerns (young people and non-white voters) have deep concerns about the Gaza Strip, as polls of Arab Americans and American voters show. no see. Now Lebanon will be recognized and respected for its commitment to change.”
Immediately after the October 7 Hamas attack, Arab-American support for the Democratic Party fell from 40% in April 2023 to 23% last October. Fewer than one in five Arab Americans surveyed said they would vote for Biden in October.
Since then, the party has regained ground, with 38% of Arab Americans now identifying as Democrats and 42% saying they would vote for Harris.
Of those polled, 12% said they would vote for a third party, compared to a September poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, which found 29.4% backed Harris, while 29.1% backed Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein. Contrast this with what was done.
“While some headlines based on surveys of the organization’s membership suggested that a third-party candidate could win the majority vote of Arab Americans, this national poll of voters shows that is not the case,” the Arab American Institute said. I wrote this in my research. “All third-party candidates combined get only 12% of the Arab American vote. Instead, Trump is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden administration’s failure to stop the genocide taking place in Gaza.”
Both campaigns have stepped up efforts to win over voters. Harris appointed a director of Arab American outreach, and Trump’s effort was led by Massad Boulos, the father of Tiffany Trump’s husband.
Georgia Rep. Louwa Romman, a Palestinian American who has been mentioned as a potential Palestinian speaker at the Democratic National Convention, said the Trump campaign has stepped up its efforts to place ads in Michigan’s Arab and Muslim neighborhoods and told voters that Harris does not care. them.
Republicans have steadily increased their support for the Arab American community since April 2023. In April, 23% of Arab Americans identified themselves as Republicans. In October 2023, 32% said they were Republicans. In Wednesday’s poll, 38% — The same number of Democrats – said they were Republicans.
There are more than 200,000 Arab Americans in Michigan and close to 100,000 Arab Americans in Georgia. Both are important battleground states that won by tens of thousands of votes in 2020. Anger at Biden and the Democratic Party for supporting Israel.
The Uncommitted Movement and most Arab American and Muslim leaders call on Biden and Harris for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, an arms embargo until Israel stops its bombing campaign in Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid in the isolated Gaza Strip. He urged us to work hard for it. Israel has continued to bomb the area since Hamas’ October 7 attack.
Polls show that if Harris calls for an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza and threatens to stop arms shipments to Israel, her turnout among Arab Americans could jump up to 60%, surpassing that of Trump voters. The result was that one-third would be secured and “annihilation will occur.” “out” means a vote that can be cast to a third party.
If Trump made a similar request, he would get 55% of the votes in the polls.
Polls also show Harris missed an opportunity at the Democratic National Convention by not allowing a Palestinian speaker to take the stage. 55% of Arab Americans said they would have been more likely to support her if she had been allowed to speak.
Arab-American voter turnout may also be lower during this election cycle. Traditionally, Arab-American voter turnout has been in the 80% range. This time, only 63% said they were enthusiastic about voting.
The Arab American Institute conducted a survey of 500 Arab American voters.
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