Israel has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership with airstrikes over the past week, killing hundreds of civilians and forcing nearly a million people from their homes.
Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated Friday in an Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in Beirut. The United States said justice had been served for Nasrallah, a key Iranian ally in the region.
But Washington is also calling for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which is edging ever closer to all-out war, especially as Israel threatens a ground invasion.
Israel expanded airstrikes across Lebanon over the weekend, hitting central Beirut on Monday for the first time in months. Local officials say more than 1,000 civilians have been killed across Lebanon, including 100 last Sunday.
“There is no guarantee of a safe place in Lebanon,” Jihan Kaisi, head of an organization that helps displaced people, told NBC News.
Here are five pressing questions about conflict:
Will Israel launch a ground invasion?
Multiple media outlets reported Monday that Israel has notified the United States of plans for a limited ground invasion of Lebanon as early as Monday.
The Washington Post reported that the Israeli military carried out limited airstrikes across the border on Monday. Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit is believed to be hiding in tunnels close to the border.
“Radwan forces cannot be destroyed from the air, no matter how many times we attack them,” Miri Eisin, a former senior Israeli military intelligence officer, told the Post. “You have to go in to get to the underground stadium, which is two or three kilometers from the Israeli border.”
U.S. officials said they had been told Israel would not launch a full-scale invasion.
“They have told us that this is currently a limited operation focused on Hezbollah infrastructure near the border, but we are in ongoing dialogue with them about this,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at a briefing Monday.
Israel has repeatedly threatened to send troops to Lebanon to thwart threats of attacks on northern Israel, and its top commander ordered troops this week and last week to prepare for a ground invasion.
“The goal is very clear,” Chief of the General Staff Herzy Halevi told the troops on Wednesday. “It’s about returning northerners safely,” he said. “To achieve this, we are preparing a process of maneuver, which means that military boots, maneuver boots, will enter enemy territory and enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts.”
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the military on Monday that a ground invasion was imminent.
“Removing Nasrallah is a very important step, but it is not the final step.” Gallant spoke during a visit to troops near Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. “We will use every feature we have at our disposal, and if you don’t understand what those features entail, I mean every feature, and you are part of that effort.”
Ground warfare can be extremely costly.
Israel would have to commit significant numbers of troops to a fight that would be worse than the 2006 war with Hezbollah. The war lasted 34 days, with both sides suffering significant losses and few victories.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that ground fighting would not help Israel achieve its goals in the north, calling instead for a diplomatic solution.
“If there is an all-out war, the problem will not be solved. People won’t be able to return home,” Blinken told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos.
Who leads Hezbollah now?
On the other side of the conflict, Hezbollah has lost five other commanders in the past 10 days and more than 20 in recent months, along with the death of its charismatic leader.
In his first public speech since the Beirut attack on Friday, the group’s new head, Naim Qassem, pledged to continue fighting Israel and said the Lebanese militant group was prepared for any ground invasion.
“We will face any possibility,” he said in a televised address. “If Israel decides to enter by land and the resistance is prepared to engage in ground combat, we are ready.”
Kassem has served as deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group, since 1991. He is known to have attended the meeting that led to the formation of Hezbollah in 1982 on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
He was the leading face of the group internationally, speaking to foreign media for interviews. In Lebanon, he worked as a coordinator for the parliamentary election campaign.
Qassem said in a speech on Monday that Nasrallah’s permanent successor would be appointed as soon as possible, adding that the group’s military capabilities were not affected by the death of its top ranking member.
How will Iran respond?
Israel’s attack on Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy, dealt a serious blow to Tehran.
Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon and the July assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran appear to have alarmed Iran and sent Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into hiding, Reuters reported on Saturday.
Iran has not yet taken any major retaliatory measures against Haniyeh, and sources told Reuters that Iran had contacted Hezbollah and other proxy groups in the region to decide what response to take for Nasrallah’s killing. In addition to supporting Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran also supplies weapons to the Houthis in Yemen and numerous militias in Syria and Iraq.
“The fate of this region will be decided by the resistance led by Hezbollah,” Khamenei said in a statement on Saturday.
In a separate statement, he declared: “The blood of the martyrs is not withheld.”
One option for revenge would be for Iran to increase attacks on Israel and U.S. forces and pressure its proxies to advance its interests in the Middle East.
With the United States providing weapons to Israel, it appears likely that Iranian President Massoud Fezeshkian will step up attacks on U.S. bases, given that he has already partially blamed the United States for the killing of Nasrallah.
“The American people cannot deny their complicity,” he said in a statement to state media.
Where are the ceasefire talks?
The United States is calling for diplomacy between Israel and Hezbollah, but neither side has signaled any inclination toward peace or compromise.
President Biden’s efforts to steer Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu away from military escalation in both Gaza and Lebanon have shown little sign of success.
Last week, hours after the United States announced a “significant breakthrough” to halt fighting for 21 days, Netanyahu rejected it.
Biden has been reluctant to use American influence to change Israel’s behavior, including last week when Washington approved an additional $8 billion in weapons for its allies.
Netanyahu said Israelis would do whatever was necessary to ensure that Israelis who fled when Hezbollah opened fire on Israel in response to its invasion of Gaza a year ago can return to the north.
Israel reportedly dismissed last week’s US-brokered talks with Hezbollah as a “breakthrough”.
“My policy, our policy, is clear. We continue to attack Hezbollah with all our might. We will not stop until we achieve all our goals.” Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to reporters as he arrived in New York for the United Nations General Assembly.
Biden said Sunday that he plans to speak directly with Netanyahu soon.
How will it affect the US election?
Concerns about a larger war in the Middle East are refocusing attention on one of Vice President Harris’ political responsibilities for foreign policy.
Biden faced significant protest votes in the Democratic primary over his support of Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip, and Israel’s continued attacks in the region have fueled ongoing anger against his administration, especially as a ceasefire in Gaza remains difficult. There is a high possibility that it will be triggered.
Michigan has the largest Lebanese population in the United States and is part of the “blue wall” that was crucial to Harris’s path to the White House.
Harris said Nasrallah’s death provided a “measure of justice” for the victims, but said diplomacy was the best path to regional stability.
“I have a firm commitment to the security of Israel. “I will always support Iran and its right to defend Israel against terrorist groups it supports, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis,” she said.
While former President Trump has largely avoided commenting on the situation in Lebanon, Republicans have criticized the Biden administration more broadly for pushing for a ceasefire, arguing that the United States should support Netanyahu’s hardline approach to Hezbollah.
Trump has offered little in the way of a plan to end the war when he returns to the Oval Office, but has repeatedly said the wars in Ukraine and Gaza would not have happened on his watch.
