A new era of Champions League football is upon us. The league phase begins on Tuesday, 36 sides playing eight games between now and late January, all battling for a top-eight berth that guarantees them a prime knockout spot (or if not that a place in the top 24). With 144 games ahead of us, you’d have to be some sort of maniac to try to predict exactly how the league table will look on the morning of Jan. 30, right? Yes, yes you would.
Right, we had best get into this. There’s a lot of football to predict.
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Matchday 1
- Juventus 2, PSV Eindhoven 1
- Young Boys 2, Aston Villa 2
- Bayern Munich 3, Dinamo Zagreb 0
- Real Madrid 2, Stuttgart 0
- Milan 0, Liverpool 2
- Sporting 2, Lille 1
- Bologna 1, Shakhtar Donetsk 1
- Sparta Prague 1, Salzburg 0
- Manchester City 2, Inter 0
- Paris Saint-Germain 3, Girona 1
- Club Brugge 0, Borussia Dortmund 0
- Celtic 2, Slovan Bratislava 1
- Feyenoord 1, Bayer Leverkusen 2
- Crvena zvezda 1, Benfica 0
- Atalanta 2, Arsenal 2
- Atletico Madrid 0, Leipzig 1
- Monaco 0, Barcelona 2
- Brest 2, Sturm Graz 1
About the only round of fixtures we can have some semblance of an idea about. The primo games pit the best of England against some of Italy’s brightest lights but the two Milan sides will be doing very well indeed to get anything out of their meetings with Manchester City and Liverpool. Atalanta have more cause for hope when Arsenal come to town, almost certainly without Martin Odegaard.Â
Matchday 2
- Salzburg 2, Brest 0
- Stuttgart 0, Sparta Prague 0
- Dortmund 3, Celtic 1
- Barcelona 3, Young Boys 0
- Inter 2, Crvena zvezda 0
- Leverkusen 1, Milan 1
- Arsenal 2, PSG 0
- PSV 2, Sporting 1
- Slovan Bratislava 0, Man City 4
- Shakhtar 2, Atalanta 1
- Girona 1, Feyenoord 0
- Liverpool 3, Bologna 1
- Leipzig 2, Juventus 1
- Benfica 1, Atletico Madrid 0
- Dinamo Zagreb 2, Monaco 1
- Lille 1, Real Madrid 3
- Aston Villa 0, Bayern Munich 1
- Sturm Graz 2, Club Brugge 0
It might not take as long as you would expect for the Champions League table to stratify with many of the leading contenders to win it all securing prime positions from the outset. To an extent that is merely a function of favorable scheduling; Stuttgart and Lille, for instance, will hold little fear for holders Real Madrid. A side to keep an eye on among the leading pack might just be Leipzig. Dani Olmo might have gone but the genuine star of last season, Xavi Simons, returned and a side that ended 2023-24 very well have made equally impressive strides in 2024-25. If, as predicted, they have six points from meetings with Atletico Madrid and Juventus then they may well be the true dark horses of this competition.
|
1 |
Manchester City |
2 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
|
2 |
Barcelona |
2 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
6 |
|
3 |
Liverpool |
2 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
6 |
|
4 |
Real Madrid |
2 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
6 |
|
5 |
Bayern Munich |
2 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
|
6 |
RB Leipzig |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
Lower down the table it seems extremely plausible that Atleti will do that Atleti thing in the group stages, staggering out of the blocks, utterly intent on being dramatic to the last. In many ways this is a competition tailor made to save Diego Simeone’s later stage sides from themselves, the sort that allows them to fade the autumn slump that hit them so firmly in 2022. Milan look like they have work to do early in the Serie A season and they profile as another team who may take time to come good. Frankly, even a point from their first two games ought to be considered a success.
Matchday 3
- Milan 3, Club Brugge 1
- Monaco 2, Crvena zvezda 0
- PSG 3, PSV 1
- Real Madrid 2, Dortmund 0
- Arsenal 3, Shakhtar 0
- Juventus 2, Stuttgart 0
- Aston Villa 1, Bologna 1
- Girona 3, Slovan Bratislava 0
- Sturm Graz 0, Sporting 2
- Atalanta 2, Celtic 0
- Brest 1, Leverkusen 4
- Barcelona 3, Bayern Munich 2
- Man City 4, Sparta Prague 1
- Leipzig 1, Liverpool 2
- Atletico Madrid 1, Lille 0
- Benfica 1, Feyenoord 2
- Salzburg 1, Dinamo Zagreb 0
- Young Boys 1, Inter 3
In spite of my praise for Leipzig above, expect their bandwagon to be momentarily slowed by Liverpool, who look firmly like a Champions League contender in the extremely early days of Arne Slot. That matchup and Bayern Munich’s visit to the Nou Camp are the marquee games of the third week and it seems reasonable to hope that, given both teams can be pretty confident of top eight berths whatever the result, we see a purposeful, front-footed contest.
This also promises to be a crucial week for the likes of Paris Saint-Germain and Milan to start building the points to at the very least quell thoughts that they might not make the top 24. For both that should be a fairly routine assignment but one wonders what might happen if the latter were to slip to a Club Brugge side who have proven to be frisky in past Champions League iterations.
Matchday four
- PSV 2, Girona 1
- Slovan Bratislava 1, Dinamo Zagreb 0
- Dortmund 2, Sturm Graz 0
- Liverpool 3, Leverkusen 1
- Real Madrid 3, Milan 0
- Celtic 2, Leipzig 4
- Lille 1, Juventus 1
- Sporting 0, Man City 2
- Bologna 1, Monaco 0
- Club Brugge 0, Aston Villa 2
- Shakhtar 0, Young Boys 0
- Bayern Munich 2, Benfica 0
- Inter 1, Arsenal 0
- PSG 2, Atletico Madrid 2
- Feyenoord 1, Salzburg 1
- Crvena zvezda 1, Barcelona 3
- Sparta Prague 2, Brest 1
- Stuttgart 3, Atalanta 2
The league phase is going to have work to do to win over the inherently conservative audience that follows top-level European football. If it is going to catch on then one suspects the relentless movement in the table will be the spur: in one win alone in our scenario Aston Villa jump from a nervy 30th to 18th, seemingly well ensconced in the cadre of teams bound for a place in the knockout round
Of course, in reality, no one will actually be safe, well expect the quartet from England and Spain who have won four from four. At the halfway point of what appears to be a well balanced league phase only three teams are winless and even Lille and Club Brugge, who have just one point to their name, are only a win away from drawing level with Atletico Madrid and Milan in 23rd and 24th.
Matchday 5
- Slovan Bratislava 1, Milan 3
- Sparta Prague 0, Atletico Madrid 1
- Bayern Munich 1, PSG 2
- Barcelona 2, Brest 0
- Inter 1, Leipzig 1
- Man City 2, Feyenoord 0
- Leverkusen 3, Salzburg 1
- Sporting 1, Arsenal 1
- Young Boys 2, Atalanta 1
- Crvena zvezda 1, Stuttgart 1
- Sturm Graz 1, Girona 1
- Liverpool 2, Real Madrid 2
- Celtic 1, Club Brugge 0
- Dinamo Zagreb 1, Dortmund 2
- PSV 3, Shakhtar 1
- Monaco 2, Benfica 0
- Aston Villa 1, Juventus 1
- Bologna 0, Lille 0
It may not be the natural choice for viewers when Liverpool vs. Real Madrid is on the other channel but there may be no more intriguing game in week five of the league phase than Celtic’s meeting with Club Brugge in Glasgow. This new format may be partly designed to get the biggest sides head to head earlier in the competition but the battle for the knockout rounds in places ninth to 24th could deliver the real drama. Certainly for a team like the Scottish champions, whose home games pit them against the likes of Brugge and Slovan Bratislava, this format offers them a real opening for the spring months. Similarly games like PSV vs. Shakhtar and Monaco vs. Benfica may just be more impactful than what happens in the biggest games, though Inter’s meeting with Leipzig could end up being a play off for a top eight berth.
Matchday 6
- Dinamo Zagreb 2, Celtic 1
- Girona 0, Liverpool 1
- RB Leipzig 2, Aston Villa 0
- Atalanta 1, Real Madrid 3
- Leverkusen 3, Inter 2
- Club Brugge 1, Sporting 0
- Shakhtar 0, Bayern Munich 3
- Salzburg 1, PSG 2
- Brest 2, PSV 1
- Atletico Madrid 3, Slovan Bratislava 0
- Lille 1, Sturm Graz 0
- Dortmund 2, Barcelona 1
- Milan 2, Crvena zvezda 0
- Benfica 1, Bologna 0
- Arsenal 3, Monaco 1
- Juventus 1, Man City 1
- Feyenoord 2, Sparta Prague 0
- Stuttgart 2, Young Boys 1
One of the most pivotal rounds of the league phase, coming as it does ahead of a six-week festive break, looks like leaving the battle for a top-eight berth fascinatingly poised. Check out this snapshot of the teams within three points of each other from fifth to 13th:
|
5 |
Bayer Leverkusen |
4 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
|
6 |
Paris Saint-Germain |
4 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
|
7 |
Leipzig |
4 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
|
8 |
Borussia Dortmund |
4 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
|
9 |
Bayern Munich |
4 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
12 |
|
10 |
Arsenal |
3 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
11 |
|
11 |
Atletico Madrid |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
|
12 |
Inter |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
|
13 |
AC Milan |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
10 |
At the very pinnacle, Manchester City, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Barcelona look to be well-placed for top eight berths albeit not in a position where they can yet afford to fritter away points. There’s similar drama in the high teens and 20s, a clutch of six teams level on six points and separated from qualification solely by goal difference. So much of this format is unknown but one thing we can predict with confidence is that there will be plenty up for grabs come 2025.
Matchday 7
- Atalanta 3, Sturm Graz 1
- Monaco 1, Aston Villa 1
- Liverpool 2, Lille 0
- Atletico Madrid 2, Leverkusen 1
- Benfica 0, Barcelona 1
- Club Brugge 2, Juventus 2
- Crvena zvezda 2, PSV 3
- Bologna 2, Dortmund 2
- Slovan Bratislava 1, Stuttgart 0
- Leipzig 3, Sporting 0
- Shakhtar 2, Brest 1
- PSG 1, Man City 3
- Real Madrid 4, Salzburg 2
- AC Milan 2, Girona 2
- Arsenal 4, Dinamo Zagreb 0
- Celtic 2, Young Boys 1
- Feyenoord 1, Bayern Munich 3
- Sparta Prague 0, Inter 2
At this stage of our prediction, four teams have guaranteed top-eight berths and in the process qualified for the round of 16: Manchester City, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Barcelona. Leipzig are likely to join them too. Meanwhile, Juventus are absolute locks for the knockout round while it is unlikely that the likes of AC Milan or Celtic will move up or down in a meaningful way.
Liverpool’s qualification would be great news for PSV, not entirely out of the top eight race but certainly well placed to get seeding in the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, a team like Young Boys might be all the way down in 32nd but beat Crvena zvezda and they would find themselves on eight points, perhaps enough to squeak through.
Matchday 8
- Bayern Munich 3, Slovan Bratislava 0
- Dortmund 1, Shakhtar 1
- Barcelona 2, Atalanta 2
- Inter 1, Monaco 0
- Man City 3, Brugge 1
- Leverkusen 2, Sparta Prague 0
- Juventus 0, Benfica 0
- Dinamo Zagreb 1, Milan 1
- Lille 2, Feyenoord 2
- PSV 1, Liverpool 0
- Salzburg 1, Atletico Madrid 2
- Sporting 2, Bologna 0
- Young Boys 1, Crvena zvezda 0
- Aston Villa 2, Celtic 2
- Girona 0, Arsenal 2
- Brest 1, Real Madrid 1
- Sturm Graz 0, Leipzig 0
- Stuttgart 1, PSG 2
Well look, if you’ve got this far, you’ll want to see the table, won’t you?
|
1 |
Manchester City |
7 |
1 |
0 |
17 |
22 |
|
2 |
Real Madrid |
6 |
2 |
0 |
13 |
20 |
|
3 |
Barcelona |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
19 |
|
4 |
Liverpool |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
19 |
|
5 |
Bayern Munich |
6 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
18 |
|
6 |
Arsenal |
5 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
17 |
|
7 |
Leipzig |
5 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
17 |
|
8 |
Bayer Leverkusen |
5 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
16 |
|
9 |
Inter |
5 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
|
10 |
Atletico Madrid |
5 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
16 |
|
11 |
Paris Saint-Germain |
5 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
16 |
|
12 |
Borussia Dortmund |
4 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
15 |
|
13 |
PSV Eindhoven |
5 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
15 |
|
14 |
AC Milan |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
12 |
|
15 |
Juventus |
2 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
|
16 |
Sporting |
3 |
1 |
4 |
-3 |
10 |
|
17 |
Celtic |
3 |
1 |
4 |
-4 |
10 |
|
18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk |
2 |
3 |
3 |
-6 |
9 |
|
19 |
Atalanta |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-1 |
8 |
|
20 |
Aston Villa |
1 |
5 |
2 |
-1 |
8 |
|
21 |
Feyenoord |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-3 |
8 |
|
22 |
Girona |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-4 |
8 |
|
23 |
VfB Stuttgart |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-4 |
8 |
|
24 |
Young Boys |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-5 |
8 |
|
25 |
Monaco |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-3 |
7 |
|
26 |
Salzburg |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-3 |
7 |
|
27 |
Bologna |
1 |
4 |
3 |
-4 |
7 |
|
28 |
Benfica |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-5 |
7 |
|
29 |
Brest |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-7 |
7 |
|
30 |
Dinamo Zagreb |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-8 |
7 |
|
31 |
Sparta Prague |
2 |
1 |
5 |
-8 |
7 |
|
32 |
Lille |
1 |
3 |
4 |
-5 |
6 |
|
33 |
Slovan Bratislava |
2 |
0 |
6 |
-14 |
6 |
|
34 |
Sturm Graz |
1 |
2 |
5 |
-5 |
5 |
|
35 |
Club Brugge |
1 |
2 |
5 |
-8 |
5 |
|
36 |
Crvena zvezda |
1 |
1 |
6 |
-9 |
4 |
A few thoughts before we call it quits on this inevitably doomed experiment. Through multiple drafts of this, I keep finding myself looking at Celtic’s comfortable placing, reminding myself with every extra attempt that it isn’t normal for the Scottish champions to glide into the business end of European football. What can I say? I like the look of their home games. Perhaps there are a few too many draws for the likes of Aston Villa and Bologna too.
Similarly, there may well be some overindexing of a handful of domestic games before the international break. Are RB Leipzig really the team that their first three games suggested they might be? When the fixtures were unveiled the likes of Bologna, Benfica and perhaps even Girona didn’t look like a team ready for the Champions League. In the decisive moments of this competition, they’ll have had more than half a season to play themselves into form.
One thing I am confident will happen is a scenario akin to the almighty melee for eighth place and a guaranteed spot in the last 16. It may not be quite as dramatic as this looks on paper, a goal or two in any direction swinging qualification towards any of four teams, ultimately separated by just goal difference. Sixth and seventh might also get dragged into the equation. Still, a question to end this on: if it does indeed go down to the last few seconds of the league phase, would anyone really pick against Bayer Leverkusen?
