When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, the party received a huge surge of enthusiasm from voters. It effectively Equal Race Support for Donald Trump and the Republican Party has grown, and this continues to motivate Democrats to vote today.
She and Trump are tied in key states that determine the Electoral College, and Harris now has a 3-point lead nationally.
The late-changing campaign also opened up a historical dynamic, a competition within a competition to define both. Harris And the main issues.
eraseFor his part, he maintains many of his strengths. He leads with those who say: economy It’s a major factor, and he’s leading with voters who say they’re not doing well financially.
But voters say the problem is much more than that. legacyThe state of democracy, the boundaries between them – and this contest is marked by a marked gender gap between men and women, who have very different views on which candidate will serve them best.
As we head into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, which will be a crucial test for the party this week. A third say they don’t yet know what she represents. Most voters see her views as similar to, but not quite the same as, Joe Biden’s. And she is seen as somewhat but not quite as relevant to Mr. Biden’s economy.
Democrats have continued to narrow the gap between themselves and Republicans in terms of voting intentions, and today they are virtually on par with Republicans in terms of voting intentions.
Behind the Gender Gap Election
The gender gap has widened slightly and is now approaching 2020 levels. But it’s more than voting blocking. It underpins very different priorities and perceptions.
First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights for people like you.” And women are more likely than Trump to see Harris as someone who fights for people like them.
Second, views on gender equality efforts are linked to voting.
In America today, people who think that efforts to advance gender equality between men and women are too far along are overwhelmingly voting for Trump, especially men who think that way.
Those who believe that efforts to promote equality are inadequate or insufficient have Harris at their side.
Third, women said Harris was more helpful to them economically than Biden.
While still behind Trump on this issue, Harris is doing eight points better than Biden in June among women who say the economy is a major factor. She is now virtually tied with Trump in that group. She is also doing seven points better than Biden in June among women who say inflation is a major factor.
Abortion: 22 Years of Deja Vu?
For ordinary Democrats, abortion and the state of democracy were more important voting factors than the economy.
Pro-life voters may feel better about Harris than Biden, at least on the ballot: She is getting higher votes than Biden among women who want abortion to be legalized.
And 71 percent of voters think Harris would push for national abortion protections.
Three-quarters of voters want to make mifepristone available. Nine in 10 believe Harris will make it available or keep it available, while seven in 10 say Trump will try to limit access to it.
But Democrats are much more likely than independents or Republicans to name abortion as a major factor.
Overall, fewer voters said abortion was a “major factor” in their vote than said the economy was a “major factor.”
So a key metric to watch in this campaign is whether that perspective spreads beyond the party.
The Race to Define Harris (And How Far Should She Fall from Biden?)
People know Trump, whether they agree with him or not. Nine out of 10 voters say they know what he stands for.
But Harris is so new to the race that it’s not like that. About a third of people say they still don’t know what she represents.
This is another key point to watch at the convention as Democrats try to define her message before the Trump campaign.
Most Republicans who think Trump’s policy views are exactly the same as Biden’s are voting for Trump.
But Harris did better among voters who thought her views were largely, but not entirely, the same as Mr Biden’s. That was certainly true among Democrats, but also among independents.
How connected is she to Biden’s economy?
While the economy has long been viewed as bad, Harris’s role as vice president is somewhat tied to the economy.
Most voters across all political parties say Harris’s decisions as vice president have had at least some impact on the U.S. economy, but few say they have had a “big” impact.
Meanwhile, Trump is ahead in his perception that he can lower food and grocery prices, which was measured largely before Harris laid out her inflation plan. Friday Speech. But such sentiments appear to be driven more by general trust than by any particular policy.
When voters were asked why they thought a Trump victory would lead to lower food prices, most said it was because of “general trust” in Trump rather than any specific policies he proposed.
Whether Trump can maintain or widen that gap, or whether Harris can begin to close it, could be a key story to watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.
How closely is she connected to the border?
Voters overwhelmingly perceive Trump as having policies that reduce border crossings.
Trump also leads among those who say the border is a major factor in their vote. In fact, it’s his largest lead among all issue groups, even higher than inflation. (That’s partly because Republicans overwhelmingly call it a factor.)
Harris is somewhat tied to U.S. border policy, but not entirely. A third think her decisions as vice president have “a lot” to do with the current situation, a sentiment largely driven by Republicans, but more than the number of voters who link her decisions as vice president to the economy.
However, border crossing attempts have reportedly declined, and the percentage of voters who describe the border as a crisis remains high but has declined slightly compared to the spring.
Nevertheless, much of this contest is already decided. Very few voters are open to considering other candidates. It is more likely to be decided by turnout.
So for Democrats, part of this convention will be about maintaining that enthusiasm among the base.
Updated state-level estimates ~ in CBS News’ statistical model All seven major battleground states are close, within the margin of error, and if the election were held today, both Harris and Trump would be in position to win.
Let’s look at how the problem of voting choice is framed. Voters can identify several factors as factors in their decision.
And all of this leads up to the Democratic National Convention, which serves as a guide to watching the Democrats and Republicans compete in a contest within a contest that will ultimately define what 2024 will be like.
This CBS News/YouGov poll interviewed 3,258 registered voters nationwide between August 14 and 16, 2024, to form a representative sample. The sample was based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and past voting. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 2.1 points.
The battlegrounds are AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
