No matter how many major events intervene (and there have been, God knows), the circumstances surrounding this year’s presidential election appear to be unchanged.
A recent Fox News national poll found Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by 1 percentage point, 49-50 percent.
Last month, she was one point behind Trump, at 48-49%, while President Joe Biden was also behind, at 48-49%.
In between those two polls, there was an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance was chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Harris was certified as the Democratic nominee and chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, and they held a series of campaign events that attracted record attendance.
But horse racing looks the same, and here’s why:
Among Democrats, Harris (94%) was 1 percentage point more supporter of Trump (93%) than of her peers, and among independents, Harris was favored by 8 percentage points.
Trump retained 95% of his 2020 supporters and Harris won 93% of Biden’s 2020 supporters, while new voters (those who did not vote in the last four general elections) each won 49%. Last month, new voters preferred Trump to Biden by 7 points.
The gender gap is 22%, with men favoring Trump by 12 percentage points and women favoring Harris by 10 percentage points.
FOX News Poll: Close races in battleground states show voters’ unwavering will
Trump’s core supporters include men, white evangelical Christians, rural voters and white men without college degrees.
For Harris, it’s women, black voters, voters under 30, and college graduates. Her numbers among those groups are slightly higher than Biden’s numbers in the July head-to-head matchup with Trump, but generally lag Biden’s numbers as Election Day nears in 2020.
A new poll found that voters in union-affiliated households favor Harris by 10 points, while voters with military experience favor Trump by 22 points.
People who dislike both Biden and Trump (those who have a negative view of both) prefer Harris by 41 percentage points, but the small minority who dislike both Harris and Trump prefer Trump by 15 percentage points.
In the expanded presidential poll, Harris and Trump each received 45%, while Kennedy was at 6%. All other candidates were at 1%. RFK support fell from 10% in July to a high of 15% in November 2023. In a head-to-head matchup, 7% of Harris supporters switched to a third-party candidate, while 9% of Trump supporters switched.
Harris leads on the crucial measure of personal favorability. She is down 3 points, with 48 percent of voters viewing her favorably and 51 percent unfavorably. Trump is down 6 points, 47 percent to 53 percent, his highest rating in four years. In fact, both candidates’ ratings have improved since last month, when Harris’s net rating was down 10 points and Trump’s was down 12 points.
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating has fallen 23 percentage points to 38-61%, his lowest since he was nominated as former President Obama’s running mate in 2008.
Walz is the only candidate with a net positive rating, with 41% viewing him favorably, 39% unfavorably, and 16% saying they have never heard of him. Vance is 13 points behind (38-51%), with 9% not familiar with him. Republicans (21%) are twice as likely as Democrats (10%) to have a negative view of Vance.
Harris and Trump voters are equally likely to say they are very motivated to vote this year (68% each). Last month, Trump supporters (66%) were five points more likely to say they were very motivated than Biden supporters (61%).
In May, Biden supporters were split between voting “yes” for him and “no” for Trump (51-48%). That changed when Harris entered the race. Sixty-three percent of her supporters described voting “yes” for her. For Trump supporters, it was always about voting for him (71% in May, 77% now).
Harris leads Trump by seven points (48% to 41%) in being seen as honest and trustworthy, and by five points (49% to 44%) in empathy. She leads Trump by eight points (58% to 50%) in being seen as mentally sound enough to serve effectively as president. Trump leads Trump by five points (52% to 47%) in being seen as a strong leader.
Nearly half say Harris’s positions on issues are “too liberal” (45%), an equal number say Trump is “too conservative” (45%), and roughly equal numbers say each candidate’s positions are “generally correct” (43-45%).
Only 28% of people view the economy positively. That’s still an improvement from the 19% who thought so in August 2022, and just a point lower than the 29% who said the economy was doing well at the start of Biden’s term.
On a personal level, 43% feel positive about their finances, the highest in two years, but 10 points worse than Biden’s first year (53% positive).
A majority still gave negative assessments of the national economy (73%) and their personal finances (57%).
The economy is clearly a top priority for voters, with 38% saying it will be the most important issue in their presidential vote. Immigration and abortion are tied at 14% each, with all other issues testing in the single digits.
By a 6-point margin, more voters trust Trump to handle the economy than Harris. He has had a double-digit lead over Biden on the economy in three of the last four Fox News polls. Voters also gave Trump support on border security (by 19 points), immigration (+14), foreign policy (+7), and crime (+5).
Harris is viewed as better on climate change (+18 points), abortion (+16), health care (+10), and national unity (+5). Neither candidate has a clear edge on gun policy (Trump +3) or Supreme Court nominations (Harris +3).
Partisan priorities vary considerably. Most Republicans would vote for the economy (49%) or immigration (25%). Democrats’ priorities are broader, with the economy (25%) and abortion (24%) at the top of their list, followed by health care (11%), election integrity (10%), and climate change (9%). Among independents, the economy is the most important issue (44%), followed by immigration, abortion, health care, and election integrity (all clustered close to 10%).
FOX NEWS POLL: HARRIS, TRUMP TIE IN PENNSYLVANIA
rotten chicken
Seven in 10 voters believe the nation’s political debate today is “overheated and dangerous,” and more blame Republicans (44%) than Democrats (28%).
Seventy-four percent of voters said the Harris-Trump debate was extremely or very important, up 10 points from the number who said so after the Biden-Trump debate in May. Three-quarters of both Democrats and Republicans said the debate was important, as did two-thirds of independents.
Thirty-five percent are satisfied with the direction of the country, up from a Biden-era low of 24 percent in August 2022. But that 11 percent improvement is still 10 percentage points below the 45 percent who were satisfied at Biden’s 100-day mark.
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Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a 17-point (37-54%) higher negative than positive view, compared to a 3-point (46-43%) positive view in August.
Conducted August 9-12, 2024, this Fox News poll, conducted jointly by Beacon Research(D) and Shaw & Company Research(R), included interviews with 1,105 registered voters randomly selected from the National Voter File. Respondents spoke to a live interviewer by landline (129) and cell phone (704) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (272). The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is ±3 percent. The sampling error associated with results across subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can affect results. Weighting is typically applied to age, race, education, and geographic variables to ensure that respondents’ demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weighting objectives include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
