The far-right Chega party emerged as a winner in Portugal’s parliamentary elections in March, less than a month before the country celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution. Ronnie Coopers and Maria Stapleton Chega’s success shows that Portuguese voters recognize the need for reform, but the party’s response only makes things worse, they argue.
On April 25 this year, Portugal celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which brought an end to authoritarian rule. New status The regime of António de Oliveira Salazar. Portugal is now a markedly different country, having transformed from the motto of the last Western colonial empire, “Proudly Alone,” to a profoundly Europeanized society. There have been many achievements to celebrate in terms of material, social and cultural progress along the way.
At the same time, the country is at a point where it is renewing the original promise of Portuguese democracy, a point symbolized in part by the rise of the far-right Chega party in this year’s general election, which won 18% of the vote. The party infamously walked out of the Portuguese parliament on April 25.
A peculiar path to democracy
Portugal’s transformation was notable for its unique circumstances. The longest dictatorship in 20th-century Europe, which began with a military coup d’état led by a military junta exhausted by the many colonial liberation wars, collapsed in less than a day, without fighting. It soon developed into a communist revolution that brought about serious instability. The situation reached a violent climax in the summer of 1975, after which a counter-coup d’état reshaped democracy into the liberal European democracy we know today.
Nevertheless, the legacy of the revolution has lived on. The path of revolution has been largely seen as a traumatic case. ~ No Subsequently, recent perspectives have reassessed the legacy of the revolution in a positive light. The years of revolution were marked by remarkable levels of political and civil mobilization, and were directed toward social transformations that overturned traditional hierarchies and dramatically reorganized economic relations.
It is no coincidence that Portugal is currently at the forefront of Europe in areas such as women’s participation in the labor market and cultural preferences. Moreover, the constitution passed in 1976 is one of the most progressive ever enacted, and despite subsequent amendments, it still firmly guarantees social rights to this day. Indeed, the entire political spectrum has historically tilted to the left, with the mainstream right calling itself “social democracy” and the communists still being an unusually strong electoral force.
Robert Fishman, who has conducted extensive research on the overlooked legacy of the transition, argues that the anti-hierarchical spirit of the revolution left behind a lasting democratic culture that values pluralism, institutional responsiveness, and civic protest. The inclusive and progressive tendencies of the post-revolutionary political culture conveniently coincided with a context of high economic growth, which was crucial in creating a virtuous cycle of welfare state development, social progress, and reduced inequality. This combination led to rapid progress until the early 2000s, reflected in the impressive way in which Portuguese society “caught up” with the rest of Europe on a range of social and economic indicators.
All these dynamics have contributed to making Portugal’s transition a successful and turbulent story. But despite these achievements, economic, social and political tensions persist, highlighting the gap between the “spirit of April 25” and the reality of Portuguese democracy.
Portugal today
Portugal’s biggest problem is economic. Since the 2000s, the country has suffered from an economic downturn. It faced the Great Recession in 2008 in a relatively weak position. This led Portugal to ask the Troika for a bailout in 2011.
The Constitutional Court’s defense of social rights and widespread protests combined to soften the blow. But even though many of the austerity-era measures have since been rolled back, the consequences are deeply felt. Budget levels in key areas such as health, education and investment remain stagnant today, and socioeconomic inequalities are even more pronounced.
An often overlooked issue is the gap between ambitious constitutional rights and their realization. These rights have increasingly relied on private initiatives that draw public funding at the expense of declining social services (especially health). With the growing reliance on the third sector, one of the largest in the OECD, the protection of social rights is beyond the power of democratic institutions and in the hands of organizations that are under pressure.
This gap between social rights, democratic legitimacy and equal provision represents a major challenge that remains unresolved despite the current economic growth. The passivity of the mainstream parties in this area contrasts with Chega’s radical reformism, which represents a type of neoliberal reformism.
Cuts and privatization are Chega’s main policy concerns, especially in a country where the mainstream leans left. Chega, who has focused his campaign on fighting widespread corruption scandals, appears to have had some success in convincing voters that cutting the public sector is the quickest way to stop corruption and that inadequate social provision will be addressed by: Less It is more about funding than anything else. This would be a worrying choice for a country that already lags behind in poverty and inequality within the EU.
Not all problems stem from economic malaise, but the recession has also ushered in a new era of mass immigration that has underscored another structural challenge: social cohesion. Indeed, nation It is the first controversial issue in Portugal’s modern history. Traditionally an immigrant country, Portugal has become an immigrant country since democratization, experiencing waves of immigrants from its colonies and most recently from Eastern Europe and Asia.
These major changes, in a country of just 10 million people, combined with the post-recession wave of immigration, challenge the notion that Portugal is a harmonious and homogeneous country. They also test the deeply rooted national myth that Portugal is a tolerant and pluralistic society, a policy of radical rupture linked to the revolution that fostered a culture of amnesia rather than a critical engagement with the recent fascist past.
As Pedro Zuquete has argued in a recent book, the idea of Portugal as a country with “open arms” is a self-congratulatory discourse that has too often been used to ignore the need to address racism in a post-colonial context. SOS RacismIts leader, Mamadou Ba, was famously charged with “insulting a prominent neo-Nazi.”
Finally, this point connects to the third key challenge: the striking lack of social and political participation contrasts with Fishman’s observations. In contrast to small, culturally homogeneous countries like Norway or Denmark, the high level of national cohesion combined with a high level of belonging and national pride has not fostered similarly high levels of civic participation in democratic Portugal. In fact, the Portuguese are among the least trustworthy and least civicly engaged in Europe. Despite occasional flashes of hope, such as the protests against the Troika, the history of Portuguese politics is one of apathy.
Building on the previous point, the limited ability to form horizontal bonds amid growing diversity suggests a particularly troubling trend that could fuel precisely the kind of resentment that the far right appeals to (for example, studies of the 2021 presidential election found that areas with a Roma community voted more for Chega).
Moreover, voter turnout has declined significantly in Portugal since the first democratic elections. In the most recent elections, voter turnout has increased to just under 60%, but this was likely driven in part by dissatisfied citizens who saw the Chega as an outlet for their discontent. Thus, Portugal’s democratic culture is characterized by a gap between revolutionary “dreams” and their actual realization, suggesting the need for institutional reform.
future
After the 2024 elections, Chega’s leader, André Ventura, declared the end of the two-party system that had structured Portuguese politics since the transition to democracy. Unlike other countries, such as Austria or Spain, where the center-right has formed coalition governments with the far right, the system that Chega accuses of being corrupt is determined to keep them out of power. The president (center-right PSD) said so in an unusual gaffe from institutional neutrality. In addition to the expected rejection by the left-wing parties, Chega also faced opposition from liberals.
The constitutional mechanism for electing a prime minister does not require a majority in parliament, and Luis Montenegro, leader of the center-right PSD party that won the election, was appointed by the president. But to pass the budget, Montenegro will have to rely on the wounded center-left (which has already refused any support) or negotiate with Cega (who is looking for a seat in government and refuses to be “humiliated”).
Whether in government or not, Chega’s rise reflects a shift in opinion in Portuguese society, and a departure from the hegemony that the mainstream parties enjoyed even during the recession. The strategy of ignoring and stigmatizing Chega seems to be favored by the establishment parties, who rely on the hope that their success will be a short-lived explosion.
These hopes may be confirmed by the party’s disappointing performance in the 2024 European Parliament elections. However, the successful focus on national corruption in the election message and the fact that Portugal expressed exceptional trust in the EU suggest that the EU elections are not a particularly good test of their strength.
The important thing is that Chega speaks to the structural problems described above. It is good news that Portugal wants reform. But the channels they have found for this aspiration risk undermining the spirit of the revolution that founded Portuguese democracy. The promises of that revolution hold a mirror up to Portugal today, and only the far right seems to dare to look back. Perhaps after that shock, a new challenger will come onto the scene, offering a different way out of the stagnant status quo.
Note: This article presents the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image source: em_concepts / Shutterstock.com
