Peter Kettle |
Following his article on Dead Runs and in response to its critics, Peter Kettle gives four examples of how he evaluated Don Bradman.
Dead Run Example 1
BRADMAN – Australia v West Indies
Melbourne, February 1931 (4th Test)
Early Aus/WI series
WI No. 1 Inn, 99 in operation.
Aus 1st Inn, 328/8 dec (Bradman 152)
Then lead is 229
Aus 2nd Inn: Assuming at least 250 runs
The other 2nd Inn in Aus in this series: 172/0 and 220 in Sticky Pitch.
Aus completed the first innings of 376, 369 and 558, and finished 224 on a sticky pitch.
Kippax, McCabe, Ponsford and Woodfull doing well (except Bradman)
That leaves the target for WI 2nd Inns at 479 runs.
The remote probability is set to 370 (i.e., 109 or less), representing a conceptual probability of 1 in 20.
This means safe 1st Inns dec in Aus at 219. (less 109 instead of 328)
rationale:
In this series, WI’s highest second inn total is 249 (Headley alone has 11), while all other inns have less than 200.
And WI’s top 1 Inn is 350/6 (Headley 105) with a wicket and then tumbling.
The final inn target of 370 across all tests has previously been reached or exceeded only three times, with a peak of 411 (all since World War I).
Bradman was out when the Aus score was 286 and 67 team dead runs had been accumulated.
He scored twice as fast as his partner at a ratio of 66:34.
So 66% of the 67 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 44 (best estimate)
We set it within the limits of 31 and 57, reflecting alternative estimates for that.
Remote possibilities starting from 350 or 390.
Deadrun example 2
Bradman – Aus v South Africa
Adelaide, January 1932 (4Day test)
on 1castle 308 inns operated
from 1castle Inn, 513 (Bradman 299*) – lead of 205
from 2nd motel: Assuming at least 270 runs
In this series, only two of the Aus 6 Inns are under 450.castle He pitched 198 innings (Bradman’s two innings, his only failure) and 153 innings in very sticky pitching situations.
SA 2 targetnd Then the inn will cost 475 runs.
The remote odds are estimated to start at 390 (i.e. 85 low), which is a nominal 1 in 20 chance.
means safe 1castle Inn December by Aus at 428 (instead of 513).
rationale:
The top inns in SA in this series are 358 (3rd test), highest 2nd Inns #274 and 225.
390 had only been exceeded twice in all previous tests, with the highest being 411 (both times after World War II).
Bradman was undefeated at the end of Aus 1.castle Inn when 85 team deadruns have been accumulated.
He scored faster than his partner by a ratio of 65:35.
Therefore, 65% of the 85 dead runs are due to Bradman = 55 (best estimate).
For him, within the limits of 42 and 68 – this reflects alternative estimates of remote possibilities starting from 370 and 410.
Deadrun example 3
Bradman – Aus vs England
Melbourne, January 1937 (3rd test)
Aus (200) led England (76 runs on a “glupot” pitch) by 124 runs in one match.castle motel.
The Aus then overcame difficult circumstances with their tailed players to amass 564 points from 2.nd Leading the way are Bradman (270) and Fingleton (136), both in the lower mid-table, making up almost three-quarters.
So Eng set a huge goal of 689 points.
The remote possibility is considered to start at 440 runs (representing a 1 in 20 chance). This means a decrease of 249 from Aus 2.nd Inn, declared at 315.
rationale:
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- England 2nd The total number of points in the series did not exceed 330, but in 2 they made 426/6.nd Test First Inn (Hammond double Century).
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- The previous highest final innings was England’s 411 at Sydney in December 1924 (two scores just over 100 and two just over 50).
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Bradman was eliminated with 549 points, so the team dead run had accumulated to 234 points by then.
He again surpassed his partner with 65:35, recording 152 Dead Runs.
Alternative remote likelihood estimates of 420 and 460 would result in between 139 and 165 dead runs.
Deadrun example 4
Bradman – Australia v England
Sydney, December 1946 (2nd test)
Australia responded to England’s modest 1.castle 255 inns with a massive 659/8 dec – ahead of 404 runs. Barnes and Bradman each made 234.
England 2 remote possibilitynd The inn is located at 430Considering 2nd Inn totals for this series are 371, 310/7 (highest scores 112 and 53), and 340/8 dec (highest scores 103 and 76). It represents a probability of 1 in 20.
The team score of 430 has only been exceeded eight times in the final innings in all Test history, approaching only the 1947 match between South Africa and England (423/7).
from 2is There are assumed to be at least 230 inns. – Taking into account 253 and 214/5 in the last test of this series.
This means safe Aus 1.castle Inn October 455, With a lead of 200. Bradman had 564 with the Dead Runs team up to 109 at the time.
Bradman scored faster than his partner Barnes by 60:40. That is, 60% of 109 Provides Bradman’s own Dead Runs (e.g. 65).
Alternative estimates place the remote possibility at 410 or 450 (the latter being equalled/exceeded four times in his Test record), which would mean Bradman’s dead run is in the range of 53 and 77.
