The Dobbs decision two years ago shocked Democrats and reproductive rights activists, and the Supreme Court’s ruling brought about seismic change in a moment of motivation.
The ruling immediately flipped the fight to the other side, galvanizing abortion rights supporters and making abortion a major election issue. Since then, the anti-abortion movement has found itself grappling with a new reality for which it may not have been prepared. The public generally supports abortion rights and opposes significant efforts to ban or restrict the procedure.
“It’s about setting the agenda up and down the ticket. Because it’s such a stark contrast and I think voters can really sort it out,” said Celinda Lake, one of the lead pollsters for the 2020 Biden campaign. “It’s a question of yes or no.”
At the same time, Republicans have struggled to coalesce around a messaging strategy to outline next steps.
“There are some differences of opinion in the anti-abortion field. But what I do know is that they are very clear that they want to end access to abortion. Their disagreement is how they get there,” said President Nourbese Flint. He is a member of the abortion rights group All Above All.
“So I wouldn’t classify it as a mess. I’ll categorize it because I’m trying to figure out how to send the message,” Flint said.
Abortion rights activists feel more organized now, with a much larger group of supporters than before Dobbs.
Many said they were trying to sound the alarm about conservative efforts to strike down Roe, but some admitted they were complacent.
“One of the things we thought about the post-Dobbs decisions, post-Roe, was that we didn’t have the best strategy for absorbing and activating people who care about the issues. We have not had a crisis,” said Lupe M. Rodriguez, executive director of the National Latina Institute for Reproductive Justice.
Reproductive rights advocates argue that they have tried to learn how to keep voters engaged in every election since Roe in the hope that 2024 will be no different.
“We learned a lot about how to work with people over the long term to find ways to engage them on these issues,” Rodriguez said.
Meanwhile, anti-abortion activists are finding that the politicians they have long supported and influenced are ignoring their priorities. For political expediency, the Republican Party concluded that its harsh anti-abortion policies were hurting its primary candidates.
Republican lawmakers and candidates, including former President Trump, say abortion decisions should now be left up to the states. This is a stark departure from previous efforts to regulate abortion at the federal level.
Anti-abortion groups say they are disappointed by the rhetoric but remain committed to helping elect Republicans.
One of the most powerful of these groups, SBA Pro-Life America, wants to spend at least $92 million this cycle to reach 10 million voters in battleground states. Their message is this: Democrats want to repeal the abortion ban and pass legislation to guarantee access to abortion at any stage of pregnancy.
After a surprising number of Democratic victories over abortion-challenging candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans in 2024 will have to choose between doubling down on restrictions or backing away from the issue.
To be sure, Republican voters rank abortion much lower on their list of priorities than inflation, crime, and immigration.
Charles Franklin, director of Marquette Law School polling, said abortion performed better when it was an independent ballot issue than when it was used as an attack on a popular Republican candidate.
For example, all five 2022 statewide ballot measures appear to be in favor of abortion rights. This was true even in red states like Kentucky and Montana. But conservative anti-abortion governors in Ohio and Georgia also won.
“I think (abortion) is an important and powerful issue for Democrats. But this is not simply a single issue that drives mass voting choices, it is influential but not decisive,” Franklin said.
Democrats want to keep pressure on Republicans and build on their success starting in 2022.
As restrictive abortion laws went into effect in states like Arizona, Alabama, and Florida, Democrats delivered a message. The law was passed by Republicans and was made possible because Donald Trump’s Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v. Wade.
Access to abortion is a mix of state laws and court rulings, with bans or restrictions in place in nearly two dozen states. Abortion advocates want to link the experiences of women in the state squarely with Republicans.
“Every time we feel like this problem is going away, we hear another story about how it impacts people’s lives, their health, and their ability to have a healthy pregnancy,” said Cecile Richards, former president and co-chair of Planned Parenthood. He said. Liberal Super PAC American Bridge 21st Century. “The Republican Party has an unsustainable and untenable position on this issue, and I think they will be held accountable.”
In the Senate, Democrats are seeking to highlight Republican opposition to reproductive rights by holding votes on issues such as in vitro fertilization, contraceptive access, and abortion rights.
“They’re trying to remind everyone of the party’s position, which is largely seen as a Democratic strength and not a ground Republicans prefer to play on right now. The economy, immigration, foreign policy, energy,” said Ron Bonjean, co-founder of Rokk Solutions and GOP strategist.
Senate Republicans attempted to pass legislation blocked by Democrats earlier this month, which would incentivize politicians to not pass laws banning IVF but would not prevent courts from restricting the procedure.
Senate Republicans also signed a pledge to “strongly support” continued access to IVF nationwide despite Republican efforts to block it in states like Alabama.
Democrats are claiming they will have a unified November with an abortion rights message.
“Everything from a six-week abortion ban to IVF, Republicans are all over the place and especially can’t seem to settle on anything that satisfies all sides. This is where Democrats are united on this issue and to preserve women’s reproductive rights and choices,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).
“When it comes to core beliefs that attract voters, this is one of the issues that has done that year after year,” he added.
