Professor Philippe Marlière analyzes France’s European election results and discusses its impact on the French political environment.
As expected, the National Rally (RN) won the French European elections with a whopping 31.4% of the vote, an electoral college record (up from 23.34%). The Renaissance Party, led by President Macron, fell from 22.42% to 14.6%. The surprising result was that the rejuvenated Socialist Party (PS) came in third place, topping all left-wing forces in the race with 13.8% (up from 6.19%). In fourth place was the left-wing populist France Ansoumise (LFI) with 9.89% (up from 6.31%), followed by the Republican Party with 7.3% (down from 8.48%) and the Green Party with 5.5% (down from 13.48%). recorded.
It is worth considering three election outcomes. First, the RN is an increasingly powerful political force. Gone are the days when Jean-Marie Le Pen’s party was seen by the public as a ‘fascist threat’.
Under the leadership of his daughter Marine, the RN now holds a dominant position in almost all sectors of French society. We have strong support throughout France. Only large cities are still resisting these huge waves. RN enjoys significant support from younger voters, but is the leading party in all age groups except 18-24. RNs have a powerful influence among blue-collar workers, employees, and professionals. What is novel is that retired people, who have been Macron’s most loyal supporters until now, voted en masse for RN this time.
Second, the disastrous results of Renaissance show that popular support for Macron is declining. As a result, many of the former socialist voters whom Macron had lured to the center-right in 2017 and 2022 returned to PS. Opinion polls had long predicted a clear victory for the far right, but its sheer scale sent shockwaves through the French political system. Shortly after the results were announced, Macron announced he would dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections. Macron’s announcement took everyone by surprise and completely overshadowed European election night.
What does Macron hope for through this dissolution? We can imagine that he intends to win the election. This hypothesis seems absurd today. How could Renaissance win an absolute majority after President Macron’s re-election in 2022 when it failed to do so?
The third important result of the election was that Raphaël Glucksmann (not a socialist but running a small party called Place Publique) led the PS List and succeeded in attracting a significant number of voters who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (populist left) . Macron in 2022. With less than 14% of the vote, PS has never fully regained its dominant position on the left and in French politics in general. However, it is a great help to the party that suffered two consecutive ‘traffic accidents’ in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections.One. The European elections have reshaped the balance on the left. For now, PS is the stronger left-wing party.
Glucksmann led a solid social democratic campaign. He supports European integration and has focused on key EU policies such as the Green Deal and taxation of the rich. He also strongly supports arming Ukraine (something Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI and the Communist Party strongly oppose).
After the dissolution of parliament, the left, feeling that the far-right’s victory in the general election was at risk, regrouped and launched a coalition called the ‘Popular Front’ (Front Populaire). 1936) to secure seats and, in particular, to prevent the far right from gaining a majority in the House of Commons.
The PS joined the new coalition, but Glucksmann decided to leave. To join the coalition, MEPs set conditions such as support for Ukraine and an end to insults and personal attacks (Glucksmann was the target of anti-Semitic attacks from the left quarter during the campaign). Front Populaire did not take these conditions into account.
It is impossible to predict the outcome of this general election. However, the RN is expected to make important gains and the united left is expected to perform well. Macron’s party could suffer serious losses and the president’s gamble could backfire terribly.
Philippe Marlière is Professor of French and European Politics at UCL (EISPS and SELCS) and a regular contributor to the British and French press.
Featured image caption: Photo of Emmanuel Macron attending a reception at the Royal Palace before the Special Council for Europe.
Featured image courtesy of belgium24.eu via Wikimedia Commons.
memo: The views expressed in this post are those of the author and not those of the UCL European Institute or UCL..
