Progressive Slovakia received the most votes in the Slovak European Parliament elections. Eric Lastik and tim hortons The attempted assassination of Prime Minister Robert Fico last May made headlines ahead of the election, but the results significantly reinforced existing trends.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog also co-hosted a panel discussion on the LSE elections on 6 June.
Slovakia rarely makes international headlines. But the shooting of Prime Minister Robert Fico in May put the country’s politics in the spotlight, heightening interest in the results of last weekend’s European Parliament elections.
With historically high voter turnout, the election highlighted the polarized nature of Slovakian politics and tested the ability of political parties to mobilize voters. It also provided a unique opportunity to observe what happens when a campaign is interrupted by an attempt to assassinate a prime minister just three weeks before election day.
Limited impact of assassination attempt
The shots fired in the central Slovak town of Handlová may have resonated widely, but other than halting campaign activity for a few days, its impact on the campaign was limited and mostly reinforced existing trends.
The attack on Slovakia’s prime minister took place in a highly polarized political environment, with Fico’s opponents arguing that changes in the judicial and media sectors were eroding democracy and the rule of law in Slovakia. Following the assassination attempt, concerns were raised that the attack could be used as a pretext to attack further and faster.
Fico’s party, Smer-SD, has reoriented its campaign message around peace in Europe and opposition to what it has described as warmongers in the EU. Taking the absent and injured leader as a mobilizing theme, a new slogan was added: “For Robert Picot.” But most other political parties continued their campaigns without directly mentioning the shootings.
Fico’s first public appearance, in a video released the day before the election moratorium began for maximum effect, reignited interest in the shooting and dominated the news agenda. But in Fico’s 14-minute speech, he mainly focused on the government’s record, repeated Smer-SD’s campaign mantra of a sovereign foreign policy and criticized the liberal media and opposition parties for deepening polarization in Slovak society. This message helped energize the party’s core voters, giving Smer-SD a quarter of the vote (24.8%). But they also mobilized the opposition, increasing overall voter turnout.
Mobilization in a Polarized Environment
Slovakia typically ranks last in voter turnout in European Parliament elections, reaching a low of 13.1% in 2014. But this time, a third of voters (34.5%) participated, the highest since Slovakia joined the European Parliament. Club in 2004.
The European elections were the third time in less than a year that Slovak voters had the opportunity to cast their ballots, following parliamentary elections in September and presidential elections two months earlier. But rather than suffering from voter fatigue, a significant number of voters pointed to the role of polarization and effective campaigns in voter mobilization.
The socially liberal, economically centrist progressive Slovakia (PS) won 27.8% of the vote and the most seats in this election, doubling the total number of votes compared to the last European Parliament election. PS’s ability to garner over 410,000 votes with a turnout of 34.5% highlights not only the party’s ability to mobilize its supporters, but also its gravitational pull. Some on the anti-Fico side of the political debate supported the PS and its clear demands to defeat Fico and ensure a pro-European Slovakia, boosting the Progressive Party’s results but weakening support for other opposition parties.
Go one step further to the far right
In some European regions, such as France, Germany, and Austria, support for the far-right surged in this election. In Slovakia’s elections, the far-right party Republika came in third place. On the one hand, its success can be seen as a continuation or reorganization of the far-right vote. Repubblica’s vote loss followed a collapse in support for the Slovak People’s Party (the nationalist wing of the ruling coalition), which won a mocking 1.9%. Moreover, Republika achieved the same vote share that the far-right Slovak People’s Party (We Slovakia) won in 2019, a result of Republika’s split.
However, Republika’s ability to increase its votes in the parliamentary elections despite low voter turnout is indicative of the strength of the party’s mobilization campaign and its message and campaign approach. The party has lashed out at the EU, portraying it as a failed empire ruled by dark forces pushing a progressive agenda for nation-states. This is a message spread on Facebook by party leader and member of parliament Milan Uhrík, one of the most influential Facebook accounts among Slovak politicians in particular.
strength of character
The performances of PS, Smer-SD and Republika were all enhanced by the political heavyweights and prominent figures on their tickets. For example, the PS invited Prime Minister Ľudovít Ódor, an economist and former caretaker, to lead its election list alongside TV personalities and EU experts. Moreover, Smer-SD has placed Fico’s attack dog and pro-Russian ideologue Ľuboš Blaha in other notable positions, including as a controversial figure in the disinformation media scene.
In contrast, the party list of Smer-SD’s other coalition partner, Hlas-SD, had few prominent figures. However, Hlas-SD’s fall to 7.2% was largely influenced by the departure of founding leader Peter Pellegrini, who renounced his membership in the party after winning the presidential election.
Round 4, super out
While it is wise to be cautious about reading too much into the results of an election in which only a third of voters participated, the European Parliament elections have brought mixed signals. The polarized nature of Slovak politics continued, although votes were redistributed between different camps. The main beneficiaries of the redistribution were the two main parties, PS and Smer-SD, which together account for more than half of the total vote and 11 of Slovakia’s 15 seats in the European Parliament.
In fact, this election could mean a new duopoly. Both of Fico’s coalition partners face the challenge of maintaining purpose and relevance going forward, and PS’s gravity could grow, especially if the party downplays social liberalism and projects itself as a home for all anti-Fico voters. However, if the PS’s ideal base is diluted, it risks weakening its relationship with its current supporters. And as the parliamentary elections showed, Fico’s ability to win a majority will likely depend on a coalition partner that can attract more moderate voters beyond Smer-SD’s reach.
The European Parliament elections were essentially “round three” in the battle between Fico and his opponents. Although the Fico side was the clear winner in the first (parliamentary) and second (presidential) rounds, points were gained by the PS and the anti-Fico opposition in the third round. The next national electoral test, held in three rapid succession, is not scheduled until the fall of 2027. The party’s performance in those elections will depend not only on the performance of Fico’s government, but also on the party’s ability to understand its lessons. Do the first three rounds and identify the signal from the noise.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image source: Andy.LIU / Shutterstock.com
