Apple iPhone 15 Pro
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said Apple cut its iPhone component orders by 15% year-on-year as Chinese users increasingly preferred Huawei’s AI and foldable smartphones.
In his full blog post, Kuo said his claims were based on supply chain research showing that Apple had reduced its orders for key components by 15% year over year, to about 200 million units. He said, “By 2024, Apple may see the biggest decline among major global mobile phone brands.”
According to his estimates, the iPhone 15 family is expected to see a 10% decline in the first half of 2024 compared to the iPhone 14 in the first half of 2023. However, he expects the iPhone 16 to perform worse, with a 15% decline in 2H24 compared to the iPhone 15 launch period in the second half of 2023.
Kuo said Apple is facing “structural change.” This means a significant shift in what manufacturers produce and what buyers want from their smartphones. He said weekly iPhone shipments in China have fallen 30 to 40 percent for an unspecified period of time in “recent weeks,” and predicts that these structural changes will continue the downward trend.
The biggest change in the smartphone industry is the increased interest in foldable phones among Chinese buyers. Kuo doesn’t provide specific figures, but claims that “foldable phones have gradually become the first choice for high-end users in the Chinese market.”
Apple has been known to be developing the iPhone Fold for a long time, but recent rumors suggest the earliest it could be released is 2027. Kuo agrees that there won’t be an iPhone with a significant design change in 2024, but there might be one in 2025. .
But he doesn’t expect the iPhone to fold. Instead, he believes the time may come when Apple can produce iPhones with hardware features to help with AI.
Apple’s final problem, and another one that cannot be immediately solved, is the rebirth of Huawei. This local Chinese brand once seemed destined to meet its demise when the U.S. blacklist limited its ability to purchase key components.
At that point in 2021, Apple had seen a significant increase in iPhone 13 sales due to Huawei’s problems. But now that the company is back, it is gaining popularity again in China and is already selling both foldable and AI phones.
Separately, Huawei also owns the trademark for the word ‘Vision Pro’ in China, which has also been an issue for Apple over its Apple Vision Pro headset. Apple is clearly hoping to overcome this issue, as Tim Cook said the headset will launch in China in late 2024 and Kuo also believes an international launch is scheduled for soon.
