U.S. and allied intelligence officials are tracking a rise in low-level sabotage in Europe as part of a Russian campaign to undermine support for Ukraine’s war effort.
The covert operation primarily involved arson or attempted arson targeting a wide range of locations, including warehouses in the UK, a paint factory in Poland, houses in Latvia and, most strangely, an IKEA store in Lithuania.
But people accused of being Russian agents have also been arrested for plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.
The actions may seem random, but U.S. and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kiev and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support Ukraine. And officials say Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, is leading the campaign.
At least so far, the attacks have not disrupted arms supplies to Ukraine, and in fact many of the targets have no direct connection to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European countries to add security throughout their weapons supply chains, adding costs and slowing down the transfer.
NATO and European leaders have warned that the threat is growing. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas said last week that Russia was waging a “shadow war” against Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the arrest of 12 people on charges of assault, arson and attempted arson on behalf of Russian intelligence services.
And Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Garstore said Russia posed a “real and serious threat” after Norway warned of possible attacks targeting energy producers and arms factories.
NATO ambassadors are scheduled to meet with Avril D. Haines, the U.S. director of national intelligence, next month amid growing concerns about sabotage. Ms. Haines said she will provide an intelligence briefing on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but she will also discuss Moscow’s covert sabotage in Europe.
Security officials did not describe the information linking the sabotage to the GRU, but American and British spy services had deeply infiltrated the GRU. Before the Ukraine war, the United States and Britain released declassified information exposing various GRU plans to create a false pretext for invading Russia.
Despite the GRU’s risk-taking reputation, U.S. and European security officials say Russia is proceeding with its sabotage rather cautiously. You want to draw attention to a mysterious fire, but not enough to warrant direct condemnation.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official, said Russia’s plan could be to weaken European resolve. Although the results may be questionable, she said it was important for Europe and the United States to work together to counter the sabotage.
“Russia’s strategy is one of divide and conquer,” said Kendall-Taylor, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “For now, it is not a costly strategy for Russia because we are all responding individually,” she said. That’s why it’s important to cluster responses over time.”
To that end, British and other European diplomats have been pressuring countries to be more proactive in urging Russian covert operations.
One of the first of Russia’s recent acts of destruction was a fire in a London warehouse in March. Authorities said the warehouse was linked to efforts to supply Ukraine but provided few details.
Security officials briefed on the incident said GRU agents used a Russian diplomatic building in Sussex, England, to recruit locals to carry out the arson. Four Britons were charged with arson, and one of them was charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service.
In response, Britain expelled Russian military officers working in intelligence services and closed several Russian diplomatic buildings, including the GRU operations center in Sussex.
Security officials said the use of local recruits was a feature of recent sabotage campaigns. U.S. and European officials said this was partly to make the attack harder to detect and to make it appear to be the result of domestic opposition to support for Ukraine.
Russian sabotage in Europe is unknown. In 2014, Russian military intelligence blew up an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic, but it was not until seven years later that the Czech Republic publicly criticized Russia.
European governments have expelled Russian spies from their capitals after the poisoning of a former Russian intelligence officer in Salisbury, England, in 2018, and again after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Max Bergmann, the European government’s director-general, said the expulsions had dramatically reduced Russia’s offensive capabilities. European, Russian and Eurasian Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“There has been a lot of confusion about Russian intelligence activity in Europe,” Mr. Bergmann said. “That caused a disruption and the Russian intelligence services were exhausted by the war in Ukraine. Now they have regained their footing and are probably working towards recovery.”
After the invasion, Russia indicated its intention not to expand the war into NATO territory. But Ms Kendall-Taylor said Russia wanted to undermine its alliance and support for Ukraine.
In the early years of the war, the Russian military performed poorly and its intelligence services were too distracted to conduct covert operations in the West. But recent gains on the battlefield and the recovery of the military industry have led to more resources being devoted to clandestine operations.
“They want war into Europe, but they don’t want war with NATO,” Kendall-Taylor said. “So they’re doing everything that falls short of traditional attacks.”
But providing an appropriate response will be difficult. The United States and Europe have already imposed sanctions on Russia and expelled Russian spies.
“We are in a very delicate situation because the situation is already in crisis and the Kremlin is already paranoid,” Mr. Bergmann said. “So Western leaders have to be very careful in how they respond.”
