LONDON/MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Dec 24 (IPS) – It has been a tumultuous and difficult year for the fight for human rights. Civil society’s efforts to pursue social justice and hold those in power accountable have been tested on all fronts. Civil society has continued to take its stand, resisting power grabs and regressive legislation, calling out injustice and claiming some victories, often at great cost. And the situation is not going to get any easier, as the key challenges identified in 2024 are likely to intensify in 2025.
1. More people are likely to be exposed. conflict The consequences include humanitarian and human rights disasters, mass displacement and long-term trauma. The message of 2024 is largely about impunity. Conflict perpetrators, including Israel and Russia, will be confident that they can resist international pressure and escape accountability. There may be some kind of ceasefire in Gaza or a halt to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but it is unlikely that those responsible for mass atrocities will be brought to justice. Impunity is likely to be widespread even in conflicts that do not attract global attention, including in Myanmar and Sudan. Concerns will also grow about the use of AI and autonomous weapons in warfare, a highly underregulated field.
As recent events in Lebanon and Syria have shown, changing dynamics, including changes in the calculations of countries such as Iran, Israel, Russia, Turkey and the United States, mean frozen conflicts can be rekindled and new ones could arise. . As in Syria, these changes can create sudden moments of opportunity. The international community and civil society must respond quickly when such situations arise.
2. that second trump administration It will have a global impact on many of our current challenges. This is likely to reduce pressure on Israel, impede its response to the climate crisis, place further strain on already flawed and troubled global governance institutions, and embolden right-wing populists and nationalists around the world. This will have negative consequences for civic space, a space for civil society that relies on freedom of association, expression and peaceful assembly. Funding for civil society is likely to be significantly reduced as a result of the new government’s changing priorities.
3. 2025 is the year under the Paris Agreement that countries must develop new plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. This process will culminate at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, likely the world’s last chance to limit global temperature rises to well within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This will only happen if states stand up to fossil fuel companies and look beyond narrow short-term interests. Otherwise, more debate may end up focusing on adaptation. The unresolved question of who will pay for climate change will remain a key issue. Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as heat waves and flooding are expected to continue to devastate communities, impose high economic costs, drive migration and exacerbate conflict.
4. globally, economic dysfunction As prices continue to rise due to climate change and conflicting causes, this is likely to increase as more people struggle to afford basic necessities, including housing. The gap between the struggling majority and the ultra-rich will become more pronounced, and anger over rising prices and taxes will push people onto the streets, especially young people who have been deprived of opportunity. State repression will often follow. Frustration with the status quo means people will continue to look for political alternatives, and right-wing populists and nationalists will continue to exploit this situation. But with pressure for policies such as wealth taxes, universal basic income and shorter working hours, demands for labor rights are likely to increase, especially among younger workers.
5. The year with the most people attending the polls on record has come to an end. But many people are still voting. election will come If elections are free and fair, voters are likely to continue to reject incumbents, especially due to economic hardship. Right-wing populists and nationalists are likely to benefit the most, but eventually things will change. If they have existed long enough to be recognized as part of the political system, they too will see their position threatened. They are expected to respond with authoritarianism, oppression, and scapegoating of marginalized groups. The result can be expected to be more politically manipulated misogynistic, homophobic, transphobic, and anti-immigrant rhetoric.
6. Even if generational development occurs AI As current models reach the limits of human-generated data, international regulation and data protection will continue to lag behind. The use of AI-based surveillance, including facial recognition of activists, is likely to increase and become more common. The problem of disinformation is likely to intensify, especially around conflict and elections.
Some tech leaders have actively sided with right-wing populists and authoritarians, using their platforms and wealth to further their political ambitions. Emerging alternative social media platforms offer some promise, but they are likely to face similar challenges as they grow.
7. Climate change, conflict, economic strife, repression of LGBTQI+ identities, and civil and political repression will continue to drive this situation. migration and emigration. Most immigrants will remain in difficult and underfunded situations in countries of the Global South. In the global North, the shift to the right is expected to push for more restrictive and repressive policies, including the deportation of immigrants to countries where they may be at risk. Attacks on civil society working to protect rights are also likely to intensify, including support at sea and land borders.
8. backlash against Women and LGBTQI+ rights It continues. The American right will continue to fund anti-rights movements in the global South, especially Commonwealth African countries, and European conservative groups will continue to export anti-rights campaigns, just as some Spanish organizations have long done across Latin America. Disinformation efforts from a variety of sources, including Russian state media, will continue to influence public opinion. This will place civil society primarily on the defensive, focused on consolidating gains and preventing setbacks.
9. These trends will continue to strain the ability of civil society organizations and activists to operate freely in most countries. Civil society will face growth at a time when its work is most needed. restrictions on basic civil liberties;Criminalizing protests and increasing threats to the safety of activists and journalists, including in the form of anti-NGO laws and laws that brand civil society as agents of foreign powers. Civil society will have to devote more resources to protecting its own spaces at the expense of resources that could be used to promote and advance rights.
10. Despite these many difficulties, civil society We will continue to work hard in all aspects. We will continue to combine advocacy, protest, online campaigning, strategic litigation and international diplomacy. As awareness of the interconnected and transnational nature of challenges grows, there will be an emphasis on solidarity action that transcends borders and connects diverse struggles in diverse contexts.
Despite difficult circumstances, civil society achieved notable victories in 2024. In the Czech Republic, civil society efforts led to groundbreaking rape law reform, and in Poland a law was enacted that overturned previous restrictions and made emergency contraceptives available without a prescription. . After widespread civil society advocacy, Thailand led the way in Southeast Asia in passing marriage equality laws, while Greece became the first Christian Orthodox country to legalize same-sex marriage.
People defended democracy. In South Korea, many people took to the streets to protest martial law, and in Bangladesh, protests led to the ouster of a long-time authoritarian government. In Guatemala, a president committed to fighting corruption took office after civil society organized mass protests demanding that powerful elites respect the election results, while in Venezuela, hundreds of thousands of people organizing to protect election integrity defeated an authoritarian government. When the voting results were not recognized, they took to the streets in the face of severe repression. In Senegal, civil society mobilized to block attempts to postpone elections won by the opposition.
Civil society has won climate and environment lawsuits, including in Ecuador, India and Switzerland, forcing governments to recognize the impact of climate change on human rights and do more to reduce emissions and curb pollution. Civil society has also put pressure on the courts to force the government to stop arms sales to Israel, with successful rulings pending in the Netherlands and elsewhere.
The struggle continues in 2025. Civil society will continue to carry the torch of hope that a more peaceful, just, equal, and sustainable world is possible. These ideas will be just as important as the practical impact we will continue to achieve despite challenging circumstances.
Andrew Fermin is the editor-in-chief Ines M. Pousadalla CIVICUS: Senior Research Specialist at the Global Coalition for Civic Engagement. They are co-directors and authors of CIVICUS Lens and co-authors of the State of Civil Society report.
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© Interpress Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Interpress Service
