Despite arriving a week later than expected due to the postponement of the derby, Liverpool recently played their 19th game of the league season and now it’s time to assess.
This means Arne Slot’s Reds are officially halfway through their campaign. Even though they played against Man United twice and against Everton at all.
The Reds sit top of the table with 46 points, their best return after 19 games since their last win in 2019/20, when the club was 55 points clear at the halfway stage.
• read: Liverpool are aiming for the third-highest points total at the halfway stage.
So the question arises: What have we learned over the first half of the season?
Liverpool is an imperfect but still popular team
After playing 11 games, I wrote an article analyzing Liverpool’s chances of winning the title based on data. At the time, the Reds were well on their way to a 96-point season, although they were exceeding their expected points (xP) tally thanks to a hot offensive unit.
Their ‘actual’ level came in at around 83 points at the end of the season. This was a decent level, but significantly higher than the closest challengers at the time. It goes to show just how unusual this Premier League season has shaped up to be.
Now that the halfway mark has been reached, Liverpool are targeting a more reasonable 92 points. However, their xP is also up to 86 points. That means we can now comfortably predict the Reds will reach 90 points or close to it.
As expected, Manchester City collapsed and Arsenal rediscovered their best form. Since the analysis was published, Arsenal remain unbeaten in nine league games. But Liverpool will now need 50 of the remaining 54 points to go top and a first win at Anfield since 2012.
Slot’s team is regressing after a predictably good start. But they are still the best team in the league and have the best chance to win the title.
The full-back is the support and the future must be guaranteed.
To illustrate how flexible the full-back role has been this season, Trent Alexander-Arnold talks about how Arne Slot coaches them in the build-up.
“The manager will analyze the way they press so we can do more than they press. If they press with three we will have four players around us so we can play through them. If you press 2, there will be 3 players. It’s about who those players are and where they work best.”
A high level of tactical intelligence is required, with full-backs receiving specific instructions for each game and then having to make adjustments within the game depending on the opposition’s reactions.
Against the ball, both stay deeper and block space for wingers on the counter, giving them less movement up and down the pitch as well as greater responsibility for defending one-on-one.
As a result, Liverpool’s ability to build play, create artificial transitions and defend fast breaks all depend on their full-backs, and it is in this context that Andy Robertson has been criticized.
According to FBref, Robertson’s defensive numbers are virtually unchanged from last season, while the decline in his attacking abilities is largely due to the new setup.
He was sent off against Fulham, but his mistakes cost him quite a bit and he made some surprising mistakes in the build-up.
But other incidents, such as identical goals scored by Leicester and Manchester United when his winger ran across him, have unfairly added to the case against him. decrease.
Kostas Tsimikas and Joe Gomez both appeared to be out of the rotation due to injury.
The importance of the role below the slot means the need for high-level backup options. But ignoring links with Anthony Robinson (27) and preferring targets like Milos Kerkes (21) and Jorrell Hato (18) suggests Liverpool are looking for a long-term successor rather than a replacement.
Best team in the league – but it’s a squad game
It’s hard to argue that Liverpool’s starting eleven this season is the best in the world. But that comes from a pool of roughly 14-15 players who have Slot’s trust, and his reliance on them has been detrimental at times.
Players like Virgil Van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah were given little opportunity to rest as Slot was reluctant to trust back-ups like Jarell Quansah, Wataru Endo and Darwin Nunez.
There have been some matches where fatigue has affected the side, most notably defeats to Nottingham Forest in the league and Tottenham in the Carabao Cup.
Federico Chiesa is yet to put together a credible team from top to bottom, with Slot being the only signing approved so far. This could be the difference between one big trophy and a handful at the end of the season.
Although the firepower is impressive, Salah is still the primary weapon.
Chiesa’s signing means Liverpool now have six senior forwards. However, the remaining five teams had significantly poor xG performance last season. This means the new manager has some decisions to make.
Diogo Jota is his favorite player to lead the line when fit, but in his absence, Slot used Luis Diaz as a centre-forward and unleashed Cody Gakpo on the left wing. Since then, the two players have moved up a level from those who played opposite positions under the previous manager, and are currently the most likely front line players in the Premier League.
No team in the competition has scored more points than the Reds’ 47 points.
But there is still one main character. Salah has made a strong case for winning the Ballon d’Or with a new look, a new role out of possession and a new lease on life at Liverpool. He has scored an absurd 38% of his team’s league goals from the halfway mark.
Perhaps that is why the link to Khvicha Kvaratskhelia appeared. Slot will want to build a forward line in his own image who can share the goalscoring burden.
Arne Slot is no longer an unknown entity.
The last word, then, must go to someone whose name is all over this work. Slot was completely unknown before a ball was kicked and the coach was plucked from the Eredivise to replace Jurgen Norbert Klopp.
Midway through the season we learned that the Dutchman had the best of the best.
He turned the third-best team in the league last year into one of the best, using only the tactical board and a keen eye for leveraging talent.
As well as having a hand up front, every member of his first-choice midfield is playing a different role than last year.
Last season’s biggest issues – finishing chances, preventing goals and controlling the game – have all been addressed and improved. His ability to adjust his position, protect the lead and send fourth attackers to find the goal was instrumental in changing the game and taking away points.
Now let’s see how he fares in the second half of 2024/25.
