Week 15 has passed and we are now in week 16 of the 2024 NFL regular season. There are still three weeks left in the postseason, but let’s take a look ahead at the current playoff situation and the road to Super Bowl LIX. Which team is performing well? Is there still a lot of work left to do to ultimately break into the 14-team field?
We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to predict the remainder of the season and look at the playoff picture for both conferences. We’ve included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch a division, and even advance to the Super Bowl. We also looked at the likelihood that a team that made the playoffs would win a specific seed, and the likelihood that a team that didn’t make the playoffs would finish with the top pick in the draft. Everything you need right now is here.
Last update: December 20, 8:15 AM ET
Go to:
AFC | NFC | seeds | #1 pick
AFC Playoff Field Projection
The Chiefs, Bills, and Texans all won their respective division titles. The Steelers are also officially in the playoffs and can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Ravens. That means all four AFC divisions could be crowned champions by Saturday night.
The Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos all look good to make the playoffs, so there may not be much to play in this conference after Week 16.
-
The Ravens could either win against Pittsburgh or lose to Indianapolis and Miami.
-
The Broncos could suffer losses to Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.
-
The Chargers could lose their cohesion with losses to Indianapolis and Miami.
Six teams were eliminated from the AFC: Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.
NFC Playoff Field Projection
The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all secured playoff spots, with the Packers on the verge of joining them. They need a win against the Saints. But they could take a loss from the Falcons and then a loss from the Seahawks or Rams. Beyond that, there’s still a lot left to be done with NFC.
The Eagles clinch the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South appears to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, with Tampa Bay favored (85% to win the division). The NFC West is wide open. The Rams have a 54% chance of making the playoffs and a 53% chance of making the division. But both the Seahawks and Cardinals are very much alive there.
The Commanders could clinch a playoff spot with a win, a loss to the Falcons, or an additional loss to the Rams or Seahawks.
The Giants, Bears, and Panthers are eliminated, and the Cowboys, Saints, and 49ers are heading in that direction. Seven NFC teams have elimination scenarios this weekend, with four of them (Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco) suffering losses and no additional claims.
Check out the NFL Playoff Machine
Simulate your own scenarios and check out the latest playoff photos. Try these 2024 NFL playoff photos.
Sowing Forecast
Here are the odds of a team in the playoff mix landing in each slot after the field is set: ESPN’s FPI is confident Houston will finish fourth in the AFC, but is less certain about other playoff contenders. For example, the Ravens have a 24% chance of finishing third, a 46% chance of finishing fifth, and a 20% chance of finishing sixth. And for the top spot, the Chiefs have an 80% advantage. They will decide this weekend with a Bills win or loss.
Due to the NFC’s close division races, the third and fourth seeds are likely to be secured. Interestingly, in the NFC North, the No. 5 seed is all but locked up for No. 2. And for the No. 1 seed, the Lions currently hold the lead over the Eagles and Vikings, but the gap has narrowed.
Competition for the top draft pick in 2025
The Giants (2-12) are out of the playoffs and will likely dominate the top pick in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly be looking at its quarterback class. But the Patriots and Raiders are also in the mix for the top pick. Check out the full draft order here, updated on Tuesday.
NFL Playoff Schedule
January 11-13, 2025: Wildcard round
January 18-19: Divisional Round
January 26: AFC and NFC Championship Game
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (New Orleans)
